Cars sit on the lot of a Chevrolet dealership on June 20, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. A cyberattack on CDK Global, a software provider that helps dealerships manage sales and service, has crippled the workflow of approximately 15,000 dealerships in the United States and Canada.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
DETROIT – U.S. auto sales in the first half are expected to increase 2.9% from last year, but there are concerns that the auto industry will not be able to maintain its momentum in the during the last six months of the year. .
Vehicle inventory levels are rising, incentives are increasing and uncertainty is growing during the second half of the year regarding the economy, interest rates and the U.S. presidential election, according to Cox Automotive.
The automotive data and research company expects sales growth to slow in the second half to end 2024 at 15.7 million units, an increase of about 1.3% from 2023 And, unlike recent years, growth comes from commercial sales compared to 2023. more profitable sales to consumers.
“Overall, we expect some weakness in the months ahead,” Jonathan Smoke, Cox’s chief economist, said at a mid-year briefing Tuesday. “We’re basically operating under the assumption that we can’t really sustain the pace that we’ve been seeing. But we’re also not expecting a collapse.”
Good for consumers
Such circumstances are largely beneficial to consumers, some of whom have been waiting for years to purchase a new vehicle amid unprecedented new vehicle supply and record prices during the coronavirus pandemic.
It’s a headwind for automakers, many of which have posted record profits due to high demand and low availability of new vehicles during the global health crisis. Wall Street predicts vehicle pricing and profit woes for most automakers from record or near-record levels of years past.
Brand new Tesla cars are parked at a Tesla dealership on May 31, 2024 in Corte Madera, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
“There is a lot of uncertainty ahead, and that could make it difficult to build on recent business successes,” Cox senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said during the press briefing. “We are concerned that the second half will not be able to maintain the growth we have experienced so far.”
The rental, commercial and leasing sectors are showing signs of double-digit growth, while Cox expects retail’s share of the overall sector to be down 9 percentage points percentage compared to 2021 to reach around 79%.
Winners and losers
The sales “winners” in the first half of this year are expected to be General engines, Toyota engine And Honda engine, according to Cox.
Chesbrough said if Toyota can continue its growth, it could once again challenge GM as the best-selling automaker in the United States. The Japanese automaker dominated all other automakers for the first time in its history in 2021.
Underperformers included You’re herewith sales estimated to be down 14.3%, and Stellantis, which is expected to fall by 16.5% through June. Honda beat Stellantis in U.S. sales during the first half, pushing parent company Chrysler and Jeep to No. 6 in sales, down from its recent No. 4 ranking.
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares said earlier this month that the company was correcting what he called “arrogant” errors by himself and the company in the automaker’s U.S. operations, which led to declining sales, bloated inventories and investor concerns.
“Higher supply means we are officially bidding farewell to the seller’s market that has defined the last four years…which means further deterioration in new vehicle gross receipts and dealer profitability,” Smoke said.
cnbc
