The forecast for HSBC Brent crude oil remains at $82.5 per barrel for 2024 and $76.50 for 2025.

HSBC analysts in a note on oil, reaffirm their forecasts for Brent:

• the absence of supply disruptions and significant spare capacity in OPEC+ help to contain oil prices
• “In our view, the muted price reaction shows that a certain degree of geopolitical risk was already priced in”
• market believes escalation to broader regional conflict unlikely
• but add a caveat: “A regional escalation cannot be ruled out and, as such, we expect the current geopolitical risk premium of the Middle East conflict – around 5% – to persist. »
• if the crisis worsens, it will not necessarily lead to supply disruptions
• it is very likely that OPEC+ will reverse its supply cuts in the third quarter of this year given the high prices

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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