There is increasing talk of a tight oil market during the second half of the year. SEB believes that OPEC will not hesitate to produce more if tight supply risks harming the global economy.
They believe OPEC would welcome the opportunity to produce more oil while still being able to get close to $85 for it.
Thus, SEB expects OPEC to intervene verbally if oil prices approach $100.
Interestingly, TS Lombard also issued a note yesterday and believes that there is little chance that OPEC+ will be inclined to provide relief to global oil prices.
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