- Before +3.4%
- Core CPI +4.2% versus +4.1% over one year expected
- Before +4.5%
Sterling rose in the numbers as price pressures remain slightly stronger than expected. Compared to February, the annual figures still reflect a decline, but with underlying inflation still above 4%, the BoE does not have much margin of safety at the moment.
GBP/USD is up from 1.2420 to 1.2440, but I don’t see this as a major change for the British pound. I think bets on a rate cut in August should mostly hold.
According to the report, the odds of a move in August were around 71%, with rate cuts worth 42 basis points built in for the year. Let’s see how this changes later when the market opens up, but I doubt we’ll see too drastic a difference.
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