The minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are well past their use-by date:
Maybe they have some nutritional value left, I admit, “in 2024” might mean a reduction, I don’t know, September or December? More likely before the US presidential election, I suppose. I mean the Fed is independent but not THAT independent 😉
On Wednesday, we received data showing that the core CPI in the United States rose more than expected for the third month in a row:
Expectations for rate cuts have shifted again, with markets now pricing in rate cuts worth around 40 basis points for the year, up from 75 basis points at the March meeting.
As for the rate cut in June, FedWatch now projects it at just 16%. I kept repeating that there would be no rate cut in June:
Oil prices have been rising all this year = inflationary (among other factors):
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FedWatch now lists the likelihood of a June rate cut at 16%. Note that this is not a question-and-answer survey, but a probability derived from futures market prices:
cnbctv18-forexlive
