What Paul George’s opt-out means for the Sixers in free agency

On Saturday, Los Angeles Clippers forward Paul George declined his $48.8 million player option for the 2024-25 season to become an unrestricted free agent, according to multiple reports. He is now set to participate in free agent meetings with the Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic after the new league year begins at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

Those may now be his only three realistic options thanks to his decision to opt out. That bodes well for the Sixers, who TNT Sports’ Chris Haynes described as a “legitimate threat” to land George this offseason.

The Clippers signed Kawhi Leonard to a three-year, roughly $150 million extension in January, and they’ve reportedly been offering George the same deal for months. George reportedly wants his full four-year deal, worth a maximum of $221 million, but the Clippers aren’t willing to budge on the fourth year yet.

The Sixers, who can create more than $60 million in cap space this summer, would have no problem integrating his $49.4 million max salary into their books for next season. In fact, they could have up to $13.15 million in cap space after signing George to a max deal, plus the $8.0 million mid-level room exception.

The Magic can also easily create more than $50 million in cap space, but to go much beyond that would require giving up Jonathan Isaac and his $17.4 million non-guaranteed contract. They would still have Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr. Cole Anthony, Anthony Black and Jett Howard — all of whom were top-15 picks the last six years — but they would be largely capped after adding George, barring other moves.

The Sixers are probably the club most likely to see George leave the Clippers. The question now is whether the Sixers actually offer him the four-year, $212 million contract they’ve been offering him for weeks.

If that’s the case, do the Clippers increase their offer or stay firm at three years and $150 million? What happens then? Does George pass up the extra $62 million to stay home in Los Angeles, or does he head East to chase championships with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey? (With his pockets slightly more lined, of course.)

As this dynamic plays out, the rest of the league could decide to move on with free agency in the meantime. If so, the Sixers and Magic will have to evaluate how long they are willing to reserve their cap space for a run at George before pivoting elsewhere. The Sixers could be particularly devastated if other teams sign De’Anthony Melton, Buddy Hield and Nicolas Batum while they wait for George’s decision.

It might be worth the wait for the Sixers, as league sources “believe Philly is the favorite” to acquire George, according to Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. Not only that, but “if he comes to Philly, sources believe George will help recruit solid role players for the Sixers’ pursuit of an NBA championship-caliber team.”

He probably wouldn’t need to go very far to get started in that regard. George played with Batum, Robert Covington and KJ Martin on the Clippers before they moved to Philadelphia in the James Harden trade early last season. All three finished the season with the Sixers and are now free agents.

During a recent episode of his Podcast P with Paul GeorgeGeorge explained how much the Clippers missed those three after the trade:

“We lost RoCo. We lost Nico. They were our glue guys. Like, they were our defenders. … KJ Martin too. It was our energy, our young legs. I think it’s a little bit where we came in too late in the year and we just weren’t as good as we could have been. I think losing those guys hurt us a little bit…

“They were getting rebounds, they were blocking shots, they were rotating. They were defensive guys. … They were doing a lot of the dirty work. … Now, myself, Kawhi (Leonard), we become the dirty guys and I have to score too. And it was just a lot.

If the Sixers can land George, the success of the George-Maxey-Embiid trio could depend as much on their subsequent moves as it does on those three. If they can convince Batum, Covington and Martin to stay on below-market contracts, that could help them spend MLE room and at least some of their cap space elsewhere. The same goes for Melton and Kyle Lowry, with the latter looking much more likely to come back cheap than the former.

If they’re forced to scramble and largely fill their roster with minimum-salary signings from other teams, the Phoenix Suns’ inconsistent results last offseason don’t bode well in that regard.

In the meantime, the Sixers should hope that George effectively holds down the rest of the free agent and trade market while he makes his decision. Other teams and free agents could look to exploit the desperation of losing teams in the George sweepstakes, especially since the league’s new minimum salary rules effectively force cap-limited teams to spend big and spend quickly.

Whatever George decides, it will have major implications for the rest of the NBA. If he turns away from the Sixers, they could suddenly find themselves with more than $60 million in cap space. (Luckily, they won’t be short of alternatives.) But if they manage to recruit him, then they’ll have to pivot to fill out the rest of their roster at a lower cost.

Unless otherwise stated, all statistics via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the window Or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sports Betting.