Vanguard’s base case is a ‘delayed landing’ for the US economy and less aggressive cuts from the Fed

Vanguard is the second largest asset manager in the world. The firm’s global head of rates expects less aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), citing in part:

• global risks of a rebound in price pressures
• signs of stubborn inflation in the United States

Vanguard’s base case scenario calls for a “delayed landing” for the U.S. economy, implying continued economic growth and higher inflation than the Federal Reserve wants, but not high enough for another rate hike. interest :

• and warns of extreme risks such as a rebound in inflation or a weakening of economic growth.

Vanguard also warns of future budgetary profligacy:

• “If either presidential candidate campaigned on a fiscal expansion agenda, we think that would be very relevant to the market.”

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On that last point, I think they both will.