Tel Aviv — Israel is preparing for a worst-case scenario that U.S. officials say could materialize in just a few hours — the possibility of a direct attack on Israeli soil by Iran in retaliation for a strike nearly two weeks ago that killed seven Iranian military officers. Iran has vowed revenge for Israel’s killing of its commanders, hit by an April 1 strike on the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital.
Two U.S. officials told CBS News that a major Iranian attack on Israel was expected as early as Friday, possibly including more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country.
Officials said it would be difficult for the Israelis to defend against such a large-scale attack, and while they suggested the Iranians might opt for a smaller-scale attack to avoid a dramatic escalation, their reprisals would have been imminent.
Tehran has not publicly indicated how or when it will retaliate – so it is unclear how far Iranian leaders will go. If they decide to carry out a direct attack on Israel, there are fears that it could cause Israel’s situation to explode. ongoing war against Hamas, Iranian ally in a much larger regional conflict.
With Iranian retaliation expected at any time, the US State Department on Thursday warned Americans in Israel not to travel outside major cities, which are better protected from rocket fire by the Iron Dome missile defense system from the country. The latest guidance notes that travel of U.S. government employees to Israel could be further restricted without notice as the situation evolves in the Powder Magazine region.
“Whoever harms us, we will harm them,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised Thursday during his visit to troops at an Israeli army airbase. “We are prepared…both defensively and offensively.”
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Sima Shine, a security expert and former head of Israel’s national intelligence agency Mossad, told CBS News that this is a dangerous moment for the region and that she is “most concerned” that she ever was. She added that concern about all-out war was probably equally strong “on both sides, in Israel and Iran.”
If Iran chooses to strike Israel directly, it could involve a complex missile and drone attack similar to that of Iranian forces. launched against a Saudi oil facility in 2019.
“They will try to do it on the military or some military assets,” Shine predicted. “But the question will be about the damage. If there were a lot of casualties, deaths or injuries…I think that could lead to a huge escalation.”
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Shine stressed, however, that she still believes neither side really wants a regional conflict.
The dilemma for Iran, she said, is how to deliver the promised response to the Israeli attack, but in a way that does not lead to further escalation. Likewise, Shine said Israel could choose to exercise restraint when reacting to what Iran eventually does.
If either side strikes the wrong balance, the consequences for the region, and even the world, could be disastrous.
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