The Turkish party led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan suffered heavy losses in local elections held on Sunday.
Ekrem Imamoğlu, the outgoing president of the main opposition CHP, led the Istanbul mayoral race by almost 10 percentage points after more than half of the votes were counted, Reuters reported early Monday. The CHP also retained its mayoral seat in Ankara and gained 15 other seats in cities across the country.
Erdoğan acknowledged the defeat of the AKP party, AFP reported.
The opposition victory is a blow for Erdoğan, who has been in power as prime minister or president of Turkey since 2003. Since he is also a close partner of Russian President Vladimir Putin – even though Turkey is a member of NATO – the defeat of Erdoğan’s party could change relations between the two countries.
What the defeat of Erdoğan’s party means for Putin and Russia
If Erdoğan’s AKP had won a resounding victory, the victory would be used in Ankara to “justify a close relationship with Russia in the eyes of the Turkish public,” Marc Pierieni and Francesco Siccardi, researchers at the group of researchers, wrote last week. reflection Carnegie Europe.
“For Turkey’s Western partners, this affinity is worrying,” they added.
But an opposition victory in the majority of Turkey’s largest cities would have “a moderating effect on President Erdoğan’s prestige in his country”, they write.
Carnegie analysts did not elaborate on how this could change Turkey’s international relations, but said Ankara’s position after the local elections could change its relations with the West and Russia.
“The extent to which President Erdoğan can exercise his personal power at home will be a crucial factor that determines Turkey’s international behavior,” they added.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkey has positioned itself as an intermediary between the West and Moscow – brokering grain export deals between Russia and Ukraine and offering to host peace talks between the two parts.
At the same time, Erdoğan’s administration has discussed with Moscow the creation of a gas hub in Turkey, as Europe weans itself off natural gas imports from Russia.
Certainly, Sunday’s elections were local: Erdoğan had already won the presidential election in May, thus obtaining a new five-year term. Although the AKP party’s defeats in Sunday’s local elections indicate changes in the country, this political shift does not mean that Turkey will abandon its ties with Russia, especially as the Turkish economy is plunged into a crisis that has been going on for years.
The continuing economic crisis in Türkiye
Erdoğan’s administration has struggled with soaring inflation for years, prompting the central bank to relentlessly raise interest rates. The Turkish lira has also lost 40% of its value against the US dollar over the past 12 months.
Inflation became so bad – it was 67% in February – that the central bank raised interest rates to 50% on March 21, stunning markets.
“The economy was the deciding factor,” Hakan Akbas, senior adviser at consultancy Albright Stonebridge Group, told Reuters on Sunday. “The Turkish people demanded change and Imamoğlu is now President Erdogan’s enemy by default.”
In a speech delivered on Sunday at the AKP headquarters, Erdogan pledged to “respect the decision of the nation”, according to AFP. “We will avoid being stubborn, acting against the national will and questioning the power of the nation,” he added.
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