Oilers playoff trends heading into Western Conference finals

The Edmonton Oilers are back in the Western Conference finals, after holding on to defeat the Vancouver Canucks 3-2 in Game 7 of their second round series.

Edmonton’s victory sets the stage for a matchup with the Dallas Stars, who beat the Colorado Avalanche in six games.

Here are the key takeaways from the Oilers’ run so far and how they will match up against the Stars in the next round:

Both Oilers special teams prove elite

It’s possible that what the Canucks did in Games 5 and 6 provided some sort of blueprint for how to at least slow down the Oilers’ power play. But even so, the Oilers used this playoffs to once again show why they have been one of the best power play units in the NHL over the past few seasons.

Heading into Game 7, the Oilers had the best power play unit in the NHL, with a 36.8% success rate, buoyed by Leon Draisaitl who scored six of their 14 goals while Connor McDavid tallied 10 assists.

But for anyone who thinks the power play is the Oilers’ only advantage on special teams, guess again. The Oilers’ penalty kill was also the best in the NHL this playoffs, as it had a success rate of over 90%. Mattias Ekholm, Vincent Desharnais, Mattias Janmark and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all play a vital role in anchoring the kill, logging over 20 minutes in those shorthanded stretches this postseason.

What a difference a year makes

Let’s go back to what happened to the Oilers when they were eliminated in the second round last season.

One of the problems they faced then was finding defensive consistency. They allowed the sixth most goals per game (3.50), the eighth most shots per game (31.5) and had an average penalty kill (75.6%).

One of the questions the Oilers faced this past offseason was what lessons they would learn from their second-round elimination.

With the arrival of coach Kris Knoblauch during the season, the Oilers found this defensive consistency, and this continued until the playoffs. Entering Game 7, the Oilers had allowed the ninth most goals per game, at 2.82, while allowing the fewest shots per game, at 21.2. And as mentioned before, their penalty kill ranks first in the playoffs.

How will Stuart Skinner perform on the big stage?

No Oiler entered these playoffs facing more questions than Skinner, and this will be the biggest series of his career. He was scratched for the final three games of their second-round elimination last year, believing his performance was vital to the Oilers’ success.

After being scratched in Game 3 against the Canucks, Skinner returned in Game 6 and stopped all but one shot in his team’s tying victory.

But how will Skinner fare now that he goes from a team that averaged the fewest shots in the playoffs to a team that had the second fewest shots (behind the Oilers themselves)? Keep in mind that the goaltender he’s going up against – Jake Oettinger – is a Conn Smythe favorite and in the top three in several categories.

The spotlight is on Skinner.

Will Oilers secondary score show up in conference finals?

Evan Bouchard, Zach Hyman, Draisaitl and McDavid have scored 64% of the Oilers’ goals in the last playoff series. This year, this quartet has combined to score 66% of the Oilers’ goals heading into Game 7. Although McDavid has only scored two of those goals, it raises questions about what the Oilers can do to find goals secondary and tertiary against a Stars team. This is what allowed all but one player to record a point during these playoffs.

The final six lineups used by the Oilers for Game 7 had combined to score two goals, with both goals belonging to Warren Foegele and Mattias Janmark. It’s a stark contrast considering the Oilers’ third defensive pairing, Codi Ceci and Brett Kulak, scored two goals, with Ceci scoring in game seven to bring that total to three.

How the Oilers face the Stars

Regular season record against DAL: 1-2-0

One team is the most prolific in these playoffs, while the other has been one of the best at preventing goals throughout the playoffs.

This is just one prism through which an Oilers-Stars conference final can be viewed.

Although scoring remains a characteristic of the Oilers, they took advantage of these playoffs to demonstrate that their defensive structure can also generate results. Continuing to rely on these principles could prove useful against a Stars team that is also capable of winning games in a variety of ways.

What if Skinner could provide the kind of stability in net that could at least match Oettinger? That could be enough to push the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2006.