The Mets rallied late Tuesday night, cutting the Braves’ lead from six runs to one in the bottom of the ninth (and spoiling my under-9.5 ticket in the process).
They failed, but the offense woke up.
Meanwhile, the Braves continued to cook, producing another six-run performance. Atlanta’s roster leads all MLB offenses in fWAR (3.8) and wRC+ (138), while being tied for runs scored (69).
But it’s not all good news. Superstar ace Spencer Strider could be out for the foreseeable future, once again testing Atlanta’s sketchy pitching depth.
Youngster Allen Winans was recalled from Triple-A to make his seventh career major league start.
His second big league start came against the Mets – the team that originally drafted him – where he pitched seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts.
But his third start came in Queens, where he allowed seven runs on nine hits.
The Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, who has looked excellent in his two starts this year.
While Kodai Senga is on the injured list, the 35-year-old southpaw plays a much more critical role.
Mets vs. Braves odds
| Team | Money line | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dishes | +136 | +1.5 (-142) | o9.5 (-112) |
| Brave | -162 | -1.5 (+120) | u9.5 (-108) |
Mets vs. Braves Prediction
(7:20 p.m. ET, SNY)
Quintana has allowed nine earned runs in 10 ⅓ innings in his last two trips to Truist Park, most recently last August.
That makes sense. Quintana is a curveball-throwing, contact-throwing lefty who relies on solid command (102 Location+) to compensate for the weaker elements (88 Stuff+).
The Braves crush those kinds of pitchers. With seven righties in the lineup, they profile, project and perform better against lefties, scoring a 135 wRC+ against the team in 2023 compared to 123 against righties. They also own the second-highest OPS (.897) and xwOBA (.401) against left-handed sinkers since the start of last season.
I think Winans has potential as a middle rotation piece, but I’m curious about his upside. He has excellent command and control of his four-pitch mix, and his elite extension aids in deception. However, he lacks material (77 Stuff+, no pitches above average) and velocity.
Meanwhile, the Mets offense woke up, posting 13 points during this series in Atlanta. As mentioned, they’ve already made it to Winans, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it again.
Plus, who knows how long Winan’s leash will last? He only made one Triple-A start before being called up, so he may not be fully extended.
And if he’s taken out early, the Braves could be in trouble. Closer Raisel Iglesias threw 23 pitches Tuesday night, while Aaron Bummer and Tyler Matzek threw 19 each. The bullpen looks a little stretched.
Learn Everything You Need to Know About MLB Betting
I bet the Mets-Braves Under on Tuesday in part due to the weather, as the cooler temperatures and wind gusts would take away from the racing environment.
Although winds are still expected to blow toward home plate, the humidity and temperature have increased, so the racing environment is actually higher than Tuesday. BallParkPal’s Park Factors projects only a -4% run factor for Wednesday night’s game.
So, between Quintana’s struggles at Truist, Atlanta’s shallow pitching depth, and two red-hot offenses, I’m willing to turn around and bet the Over in this divisional game.
Mets vs. Braves Picks
Over 9.5 (-112, DraftKings)
New York Post
