Sheinbaum faces Xóchitl Gálvez, 61, a technology entrepreneur of indigenous descent. She promised to stimulate economic growth and curb the rise of organized crime groups, as evidenced by numerous attacks against candidates and their collaborators during the campaign. Gálvez represents a coalition of traditional parties that have struggled to catch up with the juggernaut that is López Obrador’s Morena movement.
Elections in the United States’ most populous neighbor have important consequences. Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, and key sectors of the two countries’ economies – from automobile manufacturing to berry and avocado farming – are closely linked. Mexico is also a crucial conduit for migrants and drugs such as fentanyl and cocaine bound for the U.S. border.
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“This is a vital election because the two main candidates represent two contrasting visions of government and radically different views of the world,” said Luis Rubio, president of the political think tank México Evalúa.
Gálvez lambasted López Obrador for weakening institutions such as the federal electoral agency and eroding checks and balances. “We are going to bring freedom, while an authoritarian government wants to impose its decisions,” she said last week.
Sheinbaum promised to expand the social programs of López Obrador, limited to a single term by the constitution. She has pledged to maintain the North American Free Trade Treaty when it is renegotiated in 2026, but says economic changes in recent decades have created “poverty wages.”
“After 36 years, it is clear that a country cannot progress if it favors the most prosperous,” she said.
On Sunday, voters will also choose 500 federal deputies and 128 senators, the mayor of Mexico City, eight governors and more than 20,000 officials at the state and local levels.
Mexico will have a female president before the United States
The election will almost certainly give Mexico its first female president. The only man in the running – Jorge Álvarez Máynez, 38, of the small center-left Citizen Movement party – comes third in the polls.
Women in this traditionally macho country only gained the right to vote in 1953, three decades after their American counterparts. But with the adoption of gender quotas and a gender parity law during Mexico’s transition from a one-party state to democracy, women now hold half of the seats in Congress and nearly ‘a third of the governorships.
From October, we will occupy the presidency.
“It will have a huge impact,” predicts writer Sabina Berman, a prominent feminist. “Boys and girls will now know that girls can become anything they want, depending on their talent, their effort. And that, in a country as violent and historically macho as Mexico, is a huge thing.”
If Sheinbaum wins, she will also become Mexico’s first Jewish president.
Elections raise concerns about Mexican democracy
While two women headline the presidential race, the most pressing issue concerns one man: López Obrador. The popular silver-haired president shook Mexico with what he called the Fourth Transformation, a program aimed at helping the lower classes and protecting symbols of national pride such as oil and corn from foreign competition.
López Obrador doubled the minimum wage, increased social benefits for the elderly and vulnerable and invested money in Mexico’s heavily indebted state oil company. In a country with vast income inequality, he won over ordinary Mexicans by visiting tough villages and neighborhoods, squeezing flesh and promising public works. In daily press conferences, he lambasted his perceived enemies – politicians, journalists and old-school critics.
The percentage of Mexicans expressing confidence in the national government has doubled in five years, reaching 61 percent last year, according to Gallup. This is twice as much as in the United States.
The opposition accuses López Obrador of recreating the type of imperial presidency that ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century and of demonizing the middle class and the wealthy. His efforts to diminish the power of institutions opposed to him, notably the judiciary, are particularly worrying. He proposed replacing the Supreme Court with justices chosen by popular vote, an idea Sheinbaum agreed with.
“What is in danger with Morena’s triumph is our democracy,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a political analyst.
Sheinbaum dismissed these concerns. “Our project is to defend democracy, freedom and the dignity of the people,” she said Wednesday at a closing rally.
How Mexico’s next president will work with the United States
Mexico’s next president will play an important role on issues crucial to Washington, such as migration and drug trafficking.
López Obrador has become an important ally of Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden in their attempt to reduce the flow of migrants to the United States. Bilateral efforts on drugs have been more difficult; López Obrador reduced cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, accusing it of violating Mexico’s sovereignty, and failed to curb the trafficking of deadly fentanyl into the United States.
Both Sheinbaum and Gálvez pledged to maintain good relations with the United States and prioritize the fight against cartels and violent gangs. Sheinbaum’s agenda includes strengthening the intelligence capabilities of security forces and increased cooperation between police and prosecutors. Gálvez said she would work more closely with U.S. authorities and increase local police resources.
Both candidates talk about promoting quasi-shoring, the tendency of companies to move production from China and other countries to Mexico to be closer to the U.S. market. But the power grid here is already overwhelmed, and international companies have accused López Obrador of discriminating against them in energy production, particularly renewable energy.
Cartel fight for territory threatens Mexico’s stability
Voters’ biggest criticism of López Obrador is his inability to stop the expansion of organized crime activity. While homicides have declined since he took office, according to official statistics, criminal groups are taking de facto control of more land and economic activities. They moved from drug trafficking to a host of other illegal enterprises, including extortion from businesses ranging from sprawling cattle ranches to tiny tortilla shops.
More than 230 candidates, their relatives and collaborators have been murdered during the current election cycle, consultancy Integralia reported, as cartels fought to install allies in mayors’ offices.
The next president will face another challenge: maintaining political stability. López Obrador, a shrewd political operator, kept Morena’s competing factions in check. Sheinbaum does not have the same influence within the party, founded to convey the ambitions of López Obrador.
“Claudia is going to have this problem” if she wins, said Alejandro Rojas Díaz Durán, a senator who recently broke with Morena. “It’s not Andrés. She is an effective administrator, but not a political administrator like Andrés.
Lorena Ríos in Monterrey, Mexico, and Isabel Maney in Mexico City contributed to this report.
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