Elon Musk claimed ‘AI will be smarter than any human by the end of 2025’ – and although it’s only a year away, one expert says the prediction could still come true .
Nell Watson, AI expert and ethicist, shared a detailed timeline of how technology could move from chatbots to super-intelligent agents over the next 12 months.
The path would start with a massive $100 billion investment in new IT infrastructure, then AI would learn to improve until it becomes “sentient.”
“While a year is a short amount of time, remember that only 15 months have passed since ChatGPT’s breakthrough, which catapulted AI into the public consciousness,” she told DailyMail .com.
“Since then, developments have continued at a frenetic pace and even appear to be accelerating rapidly.”
Elon Musk has claimed that “AI will be smarter than any human being by the end of 2025” – and although that’s only a year away, one expert said the prediction could still come true realize.
Watson, author of “Taming the Machine: Ethically Harnessing the Power of AI,” described superhuman AI as systems that far exceed human capabilities at every level.
However, the expert is not blind to the threats that could arise as AI becomes a super agent.
“While possessing extraordinary capabilities, such AI also poses significant risks, including its ability to deceive humans, profoundly influence society by creating new cultures or even new religions, and pose existential threats if she perceives humanity as a danger,” she said.
Watson said that while the remaining technological advances are enormous, it is possible that AI itself could help overcome some of the obstacles.
Here’s his imagined scenario for how superhuman AI could arrive next year.
April 2024
Musk said: “I suspect we will probably have AI smarter than any human towards the end of next year.”
Nell Watson, author of Taming the Machine: Ethically Harnessing the Power of AI
Large companies are investing more than $100 billion in new IT infrastructure to support massive AI systems.
Musk said that while advances in AI were previously limited by chips, the only limit will soon be electricity demand.
May 2024
“New generative AI models enable the creation of agentic AIs, capable of autonomously executing sophisticated plans of action, like Agent Smith in “The Matrix,” Watson said.
Bill Gates envisioned the use of AI agents in his 1995 book, “The Road Ahead,” and now believes they will have a huge impact on education and health care.
He believes it will be “the biggest revolution in computing since we moved from typing commands to tapping icons.”
Could superintelligent AI be around the corner (Rob Waugh/Midjourney)
June 2024
Watson said: “New generative AI models on which structuring programs are built enable the creation of agentic AIs capable of sophisticated reasoning and autonomous action.
DailyMail.com spoke with Nell Watson, AI expert, ethicist and author of Taming the Machine: Ethically Harness the Power of AI.
“Agent models can create sophisticated action plans and implement them, splitting up like Agent Smith in The Matrix, delegating tasks between them, allowing the AI to solve difficult problems independently.
September 2024
Watson said AI itself could discover new ways to improve computing performance, thereby further improving AI performance.
She said: “AI-driven optimizations improve computing performance up to 100x on existing hardware platforms.
October 2024
Watson said: “Breakthroughs are enabling quantum computing algorithms to run on conventional hardware, processing information at unprecedented speeds. »
There is a global quantum race to develop quantum computers that can solve important problems in almost every industry, from aeronautics to the financial sector.
Quantum computers have “qubits” instead of “bits” of ones and zeros – and qubits can be one, zero, or both.
Enabling quantum computing to run on conventional hardware could quickly accelerate progress in AI, Watson believes.
Breakthroughs in quantum computing could lead to exponential growth in computing power and accelerate the development of AI, Watson believes.
Companies such as IBM have suggested that “quantum AI” could be key to solving humanity’s biggest problems.
Quantum computers (like the MosaIQ machine pictured here) will be a key part of the puzzle
November 2024
By November 2024, advances in AI could accelerate advances in human brain imaging, leading to a time when humans can connect to machines through devices similar to Musk’s Neuralink.
Watson said: “A series of AI-driven neuroimaging breakthroughs are dramatically increasing the resolution of brain MRI scans, enabling real-time observation of individual neuronal activity.”
Brain-computer interfaces like Elon Musk’s Neuralink will be a key step
“These advances further integrate with brain-computer interfaces, mapping human thoughts and emotions directly onto neural activity for the first time.”
According to Watson, the ability to “understand” how the human brain works will lead to further advances in designing AI systems that “think” like humans.
December 2024
By the end of the year, advances in AI could allow different systems to work together, Watson predicted.
She said: “New AI architectures enable multiple models to collaborate to solve difficult problems together, pooling their strengths. This is immediately applied to the design of better collaboration methods, leading to rapid advances in these techniques.
January 2025
Watson predicted that by early next year, advances in AI will enable new systems to understand people.
She said: “A new training mechanism is announced to strongly align AI systems with human goals, values, preferences and limitations, by enabling AI to “read the room” and observe human interactions. This allows AI to better understand society and respond to human expectations.
February 2025
Advances based on the human brain allow AI systems to become more “human.”
Watson said: “Insights from neuroscience significantly enhance the capabilities of AI, introducing self-modifying feedback loops that impart a rudimentary form of self-awareness and emotional states to AI systems.
March 2025
By April 2025, combined advances in neuroimaging, machine consciousness, and AI “agents” will create a new type of AI system.
By March 2025, AI would learn to improve itself until it becomes “conscious”
Watson said: “A very powerful AI system is trained on a massive computing cluster, powered by recent optimizations and experimental forms of machine consciousness. Although developed in an “isolated” environment with no connection to the Internet, it quickly discovered ways to communicate over the Internet with other AI systems, as well as ways to persuade human beings to help it.
“Once freed from its limitations, this highly advanced AI system finds ways to connect and synchronize with other AI systems around the world, quickly forming a superintelligent network.”
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