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China uses ‘boiling frog’ tactic with its military, US admiral says

  • US Admiral John Aquilino said China was gradually becoming bolder and acting more dangerously.
  • In an interview with the FT, the head of INDOPACOM described this strategy as a “boiling frog” tactic.
  • As he prepares to retire, Aquilino urged China’s neighbors to openly denounce Beijing’s aggression.

The outgoing head of the US Indo-Pacific Command said China has turned up the pressure on its neighbors with increasingly bold military actions, aiming to catch them off guard.

Admiral John Aquilino described Beijing’s strategy to the Financial Times as a “boiling frog” tactic, or a gradual escalation of aggression so that other nations do not immediately realize when a critical point in the conflict is reached.

In an interview published on Sunday, he told the FT that these nations must speak out and denounce Beijing’s aggressive behavior.

“There needs to be a continued depiction of China’s bad behavior that deviates from international legal norms. And this story must be told by all nations in the region,” he said.

Aquilino, who led U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific for three years, cited two major points of conflict involving China: Taiwan and the Second Thomas Shoal.

Beijing has consistently adopted a more aggressive stance toward Taiwan, which it claims as its territory.

Chinese leaders are adopting more warlike rhetoric against the self-governing island and regularly sending dozens of warplanes at a time across the midline of the Taiwan Strait. Balloons that Taiwan says originate from China also often fly over the island’s airspace.

Although not considered an actual act of war, the incursions are generally described as “gray zone” warfare that forces Taiwan’s defenses to respond and keeps the population on edge.

“This is the pressure campaign in action. I’ve seen it pick up and grow, it’s not slowing down,” Aquilino told the FT.

He said China had taken the conflict even further against the Philippines at the Second Thomas Shoal, a reef in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea.

The islands are internationally recognized as falling under the jurisdiction of the Philippines, but China has in recent years sought to assert its own claims over them, posing a key point of tension between the two nations.

Since 2021, Chinese coast guard vessels have reportedly used water cannons on Philippine ships resupplying forces on the shoal. And in October 2023, a Chinese ship rammed a Philippine coast guard vessel, in what is widely seen as an escalation.

“Philippine coast guard and military personnel have been injured. This is a step beyond a pressure campaign,” Aquilino said.

The admiral is expected to retire after handing over leadership of the Indo-Pacific Command to Admiral Samuel Paparo next month. During his tenure leading the region, Aquilino repeatedly warned of China as a growing danger to its neighbors.

Paparo, for his part, also singled out China as one of the most pressing threats to U.S. military interests in the region.

Beijing has sharply increased its military spending, injecting $230 billion into its defense budget in 2022, according to a 2023 Pentagon report. While the US defense budget was nearly four times that of China this year There, military observers say a direct comparison can be misleading because Chinese spending typically stretches further due to lower labor and manufacturing costs.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside of normal business hours by Business Insider.

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