Best prop bets for first round

The NFL Draft is finally here, and I bring you four of my favorite prop bets for the first round, which begins Thursday night in Detroit.

The Chicago Bears will be clocked by league commissioner Roger Goodell at 8 p.m. ET.

All expectations are that USC quarterback Caleb Williams will be the first overall pick. In fact, the pick is so certain that sportsbooks have long since stopped listing Williams as the No. 1 option.

2024 NFL Draft: Best prop bets for the first round

Over/under 4.5 quarterbacks taken in the first round (+280 DraftKings)

I remain convinced that quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix are not first-round prospects.

The market disagrees, but we’ve seen quarterbacks in recent years experience significant first-round buzz before falling in the draft. Hendon Hooker, Will Levis and Malik Willis all come to mind.

With Williams, Jaden Daniels, Drake May and JJ McCarthy all expected to be in the top 10, all it would take for the top to hit this prop is one additional QB taken in the first round, either Penix or Nix.

But both are flawed prospects with red flags.

First, only two quarterbacks older than Penix (24 on May 8) and Nix (24 on February 25) were drafted in the first round.

Second, Penix suffered four season-ending injuries while at Indiana before being traded to Washington, and there are significant questions about his ball placement and production under pressure.

And while Nix posted gaudy numbers at Oregon (4,508 passing yards, 45 touchdowns, 3 interceptions in 2023), he played in a fantasy offense that rarely asked him to make difficult throws downfield. terrain in narrow windows. Are his skills transferable to the NFL?

There have only been five quarterbacks selected in the first round four times in the history of the draft, and I’m betting this year won’t be the fifth.

Pick: Under 4.5 quarterbacks selected in the first round (+280, DraftKings)

Over/Under 6.5 wide receivers taken in first round

Juice is only juice if it loses, and with the NFL Draft, you can take even more liberties betting on juicy markets.

Unlike a basketball game, which can contain a wild 3-point variance, the draft is information-driven. And all the information so far indicates we’ll see at most six wide receivers come off the board Thursday night.

We know the top three receivers in this draft class: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. However, the situation becomes very murky beyond this higher level.

Brian Thomas Jr. was climbing the rankings, but there are now concerns about his medical history, particularly with a prior labrum injury.

Adonai Mitchell has some off-field concerns (see below), while Xavier Worthy has as wide a range of results as anyone in this class. Even if both Texas receivers advance in the first round, which is far from a guarantee, we would still only have six wideouts.

The wide receiver position is the deepest in this year’s draft, with plenty of starting talent available on day two.

I would be more surprised by seven wide receivers in the first round than seeing just four come off the board.

Pick: Under 6.5 wide receivers selected in the first round (-360, DraftKings)

Position of the Chiefs’ first drafted player

The current situation with Rashee Rice has pushed the wide receiver into the prime position to be drafted by the Chiefs, and according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Rice is facing a multi-game suspension.

However, wide receiver is far from Kansas City’s only need.

The Chiefs’ offensive line was a problem last year, and it’s hard to imagine them entering next season with Wanya Morris and Jawaan Taylor as their starting tackles without adding competition.

Jordan Morgan and Kingsley Suamataia are offensive tackles who should be available at No. 32. We could also see the Chiefs trade for someone like Tyler Guyton or Amarius Mims.

The drop-off in top tackle crop to Day 2 prospects is much greater than among wide receivers. These supply and demand economics should push the Chiefs to prioritize the offensive line in the first round before adding pass-catching talent on Day 2.

Pick: Chiefs first drafted player: Offensive lineman (+110, FanDuel)

Betting on the NFL?

Adonai Mitchell over/under draft position 27.5

Although Mitchell passes the eye test as a high-level wide receiver, there are significant concerns about his profile.

He had just three career 100-yard games in college and was held under 50 yards in 13 of his last 20 games. He ranked just 100th out of 121 qualified wide receivers in yards per route run last season, according to PFF.

In addition to the low production profile, questions were raised about Mitchell’s character, primarily related to his diabetes causing significant mood swings due to hypoglycemia.

His commitment to routes is also inconsistent in cinema, particularly in plays where he knows he is not the first read.

I don’t see a good landing spot for Mitchell before No. 28 to the Bills, and with this prop we lock in that pick as a potential outcome. If Brian Thomas’ injury issues cause him to slide, that could also cause Mitchell to fall further down the draft boards.

Choice: Adonai Mitchell over 27.5 (-190, Césars)