AUDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting, with virtually no change in its statement. The Dot Plot showed three more rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were improved with higher growth and inflation and lower unemployment.
• Fed Chairman Powell maintained a neutral stance, saying it was premature to react to recent inflation data given possible obstacles on the path to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and PPI exceeded expectations for the second month in a row.
• U.S. NFP beat expectations across the board, although average hourly earnings were in line with forecasts.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI significantly beat expectations as the price component continued to rise, while the US ISM Services PMI missed expectations as the price index fell to a 4-year low .
• There is now a 50/50 chance of a rate cut in June.

EUR

• The RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and finally abandoned its tightening trend.
• The latest monthly CPI report was in line with expectations, although the core inflation measure rose from the previous month.
• The latest labor market report far exceeded expectations.
• The Wage Price Index surprised to the upside as Australia’s wage growth remains strong.
• The latest Australian PMIs showed that the manufacturing PMI continues to contract, while the services PMI continues to rise and remains expanding.
• The market expects a first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeline

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD has returned to the key resistance at 0.6623 following the US NFP Goldilocks report. We can expect sellers to intervene again around these levels with a defined risk above resistance to position themselves for a fall to the lows. Buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price move higher to increase bullish bets to 0.69.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the price recently bounced off the 0.6560 support area where we also had the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average for the confluence. If price returns there, we can expect buyers to step in with a set risk below support to position themselves for a breakout above the resistance level with a better risk/reward setup. Sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price fall to increase bearish bets to new lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe

On the hourly chart we can see that we have a strong support area around the 0.6590 level where we can find the confluence of the previous swing level, trendline and the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2 %. This is the first support that buyers may want to use to position themselves for a break above the resistance level. Sellers, on the other hand, will look for a downside breakout to increase bearish bets up to the support at 0.6560.

Events to come

Tomorrow we will receive the US CPI report and the FOMC minutes. On Thursday we will have the US PPI and the latest US jobless claims figures. On Friday, we wrap up the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.