AP Top 25 Reaction: Michigan starts low for defending champ, keep an eye on Miami in preseason release

Michigan reached the top of college football for the first time since 1997 last season. AP Preseason Top 25 In all likelihood, the Wolverines will struggle to return in 2024. The Wolverines became the lowest-ranked preseason defending national champion in the AP Top 25 since 2011 after starting the year at No. 9 in Monday’s preseason poll. That ranking is the worst since 2011 for Auburn, which defended its title at No. 23 without Heisman-winning quarterback Cam Newton.

Of course, Michigan is the first national championship team to lose its coach since 1997, when Nebraska’s co-champion coach Tom Osborne retired. The following year, the Cornhuskers started in fourth place but finished 19th with a 9-4 overall record. Michigan also handed the reins to an assistant coach, Sherrone Moore, but the Wolverines have a unique challenge ahead.

Michigan is far from the only team making history. No. 4 Texas earned its highest preseason ranking since 2009 after earning a trip to the 2023 CFP, while No. 3 Oregon matched its highest preseason ranking in program history. Conversely, No. 5 Alabama is the lowest preseason ranking since 2009 in the post-Nick Saban era, while No. 14 Clemson earned its lowest preseason ranking since 2014.

Here are some other key notes and facts to watch from the 2024 preseason AP Top 25.

Who will make it out of the top 10?

In 20 of the last 21 seasons, a team that started the year in the top 10 ended up falling off the field. That may be becoming less common in an era where the SEC and Big Ten have so much home-field advantage. Michigan’s case, however, is simple after the Wolverines lost nearly their entire offense and most of their leadership. Likewise, Florida State cleaned house and still earned a 10th-place finish in the preseason rankings. The Seminoles have a manageable road in the ACC, but replicating last year’s top-five season will be tough.

Outside of the obvious candidates, the rest of the field is fascinating. It’s nearly impossible to imagine Georgia, Ohio State, or Oregon failing to finish as College Football Playoff teams with the firepower each of them brings. Penn State has also set a consistent bar for itself and has a hilarious and easy program with only one opponent (No. 2 Ohio State) ranked higher than No. 23 in the preseason poll.

Notre Dame finished outside the top 15 in each of Marcus Freeman’s two years and lost left tackle Charles Jagusah to injury during camp. Alabama (5th) and Ole Miss (6th) have unprecedented levels of pressure on their teams that have yet to reach the top.

The most interesting case, though, might be Texas. The Longhorns are clearly building a powerhouse team, but the heart of their playoff team was their run-stifling defensive line and dynamic players. Especially after a season-ending injury to RB CJ Baxter, Texas is starting from scratch in both areas. Will it cost them? An early-season game against Michigan and back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Georgia will test Steve Sarkisian’s program.

Candidates for low-cost purchases

Most of the preseason polls have been duds. In fact, only one team that started in the top 15 finished last season unranked: Utah, which played without starting quarterback Cameron Rising. Relying so heavily on conventional logic leaves the door open for spoilers to make their case. Here are three teams that could very well spoil the party.

• Iowa State: The Cyclones quietly finished 2023 as a serious Big 12 contender after overcoming a 1-2 start. Today, Iowa State ranks No. 1 nationally in return production and has a serious receiver duo in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel that can complement a solid defense.
• Miami (Florida): It’s reasonable for voters to play it safe with the Hurricanes after two uneven seasons under coach Mario Cristobal, but this year it’s paying off. The U has assembled one of the most complete transfer classes in the country in quarterback Cam Ward and running back Damien Martinez. The offense alone should be one of the best in the country, and the defense has plenty of experience.
• Boise State: The Group of Five didn’t make the preseason poll in its entirety, but expect that to change in the coming weeks. While Boise State is likely to blow its doors off against Oregon in Week 2, running back Ashton Jeanty and a solid defense are a serious contender for the top 25. Don’t be surprised to see the Broncos well into the College Football Playoff race.

Who’s gonna win it all? Look up

Since the College Football Playoff began in 2014, the best in the sport have dominated the field. In fact, all 10 teams that have won a national championship during the four-team playoff era began the year ranked in the top six of the preseason AP poll. If history is any guide, that means one of the following teams will win the elusive trophy at year’s end: Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Alabama or Ole Miss.

At the same time, only one team ranked No. 1 in the preseason has ultimately won a national championship: Alabama in 2017. Ironically, that season, the Tide failed to win the SEC championship, but did earn a trip to the field with an 11-1 record as a non-champion. That could be a problem for Georgia, which opens the year in first place.

New faces climb in the polls

Kansas City football has been through hell over the past 15 years, but coach Lance Leipold has led the program back to success. It makes sense that the Jayhawks earned their first preseason AP Top 25 ranking since 2009 after finishing No. 22. KU’s archrival Missouri (No. 11) fared even better after earning its highest preseason ranking since 2008. Ole Miss also climbed the list, earning its highest preseason ranking (No. 6) since 1970.