Solid statements made after a summit of European leaders in Paris on March 27 have demonstrated two things – France and the United Kingdom are determined to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, but the plans are currently hostage to the whims of the Kremlin.
“You cannot trust the Russians further that you cannot launch them today, and it will really be the blocking of the negotiation process for all parties,” Dr. Ian Garner, assistant professor in totalitarian studies at the Pilecki Institute in Poland, at the kyiv Independent.
Faced with the United States in retirement, several European countries have advanced with plans to send troops to Ukraine as part of a “comfort force” in the event of a ceasefire with Russia, French President Emmanuel Macron announced at the Paris summit.
Any potential force deployed would be “a force designed to dissuade, in order to send this message to (Russian president Vladimir) Putin that it is an agreement that will be defended,” added British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
But at the same time, Starmer recognized the obvious obstacle to what is necessary to put the plan in action – a real peace agreement.
“We have agreed here in Paris today that it is clear that the Russians are obstructing. They play games and that they play for time,” he said.
“It is a classic of Putin’s game book, but we cannot let them drag this while they continue to continue their illegal invasion.”
French and British military planners will go to Ukraine to start coordinating with the country’s armed forces on how this “comfort force” could be deployed, but a major obstacle will plan such an operation while not knowing what type of peace they will be there to apply.
Distinct negotiations with the United States have so far not given a clear plan for peace. Despite Ukraine’s approval by an American plan for a 30-day complete ceasefire, Russia has so far refused, has rather added conditions, including lifting sanctions, for its participation, while only accepting the partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure and the use of force in the Black Sea.
At the Paris Summit, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia’s requests show that “Russia is not looking for real peace today and leads to war”, urging Ukraine European partners to increase the pressure on the Kremlin.
His point of view was taken up by Macron, who said that even if kyiv had “taken the risk of peace”, Moscow’s requests in negotiations showed a “desire for war”.
The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose approach to the support of Ukraine has aroused criticism in the past, said: “We have seen how the negotiations have taken place so far, and Russia has added new requests after each round”.
“This clearly shows that Russia is not currently interested in real peace,” he added.
Garner said that the problem was hardly new given the assault of Russia against Ukraine dates back to 2014.
“The problem … is on the Russian side. I don’t see much enthusiasm from the Kremlin to sign something other than a thin-paper ceasefire that would be or could bring back to war or an attempt to exercise Ukraine control by non-military means,” he added.
The risk of a complete ceasefire imposed with conditions favorable to Russia remains a real concern among European leaders, in particular with a White House which seems to encourage rapid results compared to a fair and lasting peace for Ukraine.
“A ceasefire could be possible because he could offer Putin the ability to recover the losses of Russia and to wait and to see in which” negotiations “could go,” said Gabrielius Landsbergis, the former Foreign Minister of Lithuania, to The Kyiv Independent.
Landsbergis added that Putin considers a cease-fire as a possible lever effect “to rebuild her position in the world”.
“Maybe some sanctions will be deleted or that some other advantages may come to him,” he added.
European leaders have so far excluded any repair of sanctions, or from the promise to relieve sanctions, but the United States has not done so in particular.
What is out of doubt is that the biggest decisive factor in the way peace will be shaped in Ukraine will be the way the United States manages the negotiations in progress.
As a Ukraine, Russia accepts a ceasefire at sea, the black-beaten black sea fleet is ready to obtain a stay
On March 25, the White House announced that Ukraine and Russia had accepted “to eliminate the use of force” at the Black Sea, sending the spotlight to a battle theater which has been relatively calm for more than a year. Throughout 2022 and 2023, Ukrainian strikes against Russian ships,
Richard Haass, former director of policies planning in the American State Department, told Kyiv independent that “a complete ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia is a realistic prospect if the United States demonstrates its desire to provide significant long-term and long-term intelligence support for Ukraine for its defense”.
“Such support is essential if Putin must understand that time is not on the side of Russia,” he added.
Haass said that any agreement cannot be based on the confidence of Moscow’s intentions. “It must be built on the force so that Putin determines, as reluctantly, that the war continues will not reach the objectives of Russia in Ukraine and could weaken Russia in the process.”
For this, the former best diplomat said that Europe will have to intensify.
“The role of Europe becomes much more important if the United States chooses to reduce or end its support for Ukraine,” he said.
Many have doubted the administration of the support of American president Donald Trump in Ukraine in Ukraine, as well as the jurisdiction of those appointed presidential, in particular after the senior Trump officials, including his vice-president, national security advisor and defense secretary, discussed the very sensitive military plans on a group cat where a journalist was inadvertently added.
“Donald Trump’s American negotiation party seems inexperienced and gullible to the way they deal with the Kremlin,” said Garner.
“The Putin regime turns different stories to different parts. He tells his audience a thing and the Western audience another. He continuously attacks and threatens Ukraine. There is no sign that the state withdraws from his attacks.”
While the Kremlin has accepted partial ceases on energy infrastructure and the use of force in the Black Sea, its devastating bombing of Ukrainian cities continues.
In the last case, a Russian drone attack on March 28 killed four people and injured at least 24 in the city of Dnipro, triggering a large fire in a hotel and a restaurant complex as well as 11 houses.
Despite Ukraine’s desire to register for a complete ceasefire, and Russia’s refusal and the ongoing attacks against civilians, Landsbergis said things were still heading for Moscow.
“It all depends if the United States is ready to give Putin everything he asks and so far that seems to be the case,” he said.
There is also the question of European unity, which will be crucial for any peacekeeping force led by Europe.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed his skepticism to send European troops to Ukraine, warning that Moscow could see this as a provocation.
Garner warned that only a coherent European force could work as a real deterrence against the new Russian assault.
“The biggest supporter of Ukraine in Europe in terms of size, Poland, has been quite doubtful about the bet on the ground of Polish troops,” he said.
“If Poland should change my mind, I think others could follow but without Poland, I don’t think it’s realistic.”
Macron said that Europe’s comfort force plans for Ukraine would take shape for the following three to four weeks, but the biggest challenge remains – whatever the form it takes, it still targets a mobile target while the peace negotiations led by the United States continue to weaken.
While the fate of Ukraine is at stake, the culture of command `Soviet ” damages the war effort
Last February, a Ukrainian company commander going by his appeal veterinarian was sentenced to send his people to strengthen the position of another unit in the coming hours. He was told that four national guards occupied the post on the other side of the village in which they defended
