With Nestor Cortes starting Thursday against Alex Wood, we should expect the Yankees to close out their series against the Oakland A’s with a comfortable victory.
Let’s take a look at the MLB game and make a choice.
| Team | Money line | Shopping line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| As | +200 | +1.5 (+100) | o8 (-105) |
| Yankees | -250 | -1.5 (-120) | u8 (-115) |
Cortes has a 3.41 ERA in 2024, and most indicators suggest he’s been every bit as good as that number suggests. He owns a WHIP of 1.07 and has pitched to an xERA of 2.74.
In an era of overwhelming pitchers, Cortes is a throwback who has dominated thanks to his ability to keep hitters guessing.
Hitters have struggled against his cutter, sweeper, and changeup, and have only found real success with his fastball this season.
Excellent command of his deep arsenal has been a strength throughout his outstanding 2022 campaign, and it has been a strength again in 2024.
He has a Location+ of 104 and has allowed a three-ball count to just 13% of batters faced this season.
The A’s achieved a wRC+ of 94 against left-handed pitchers. They generated hard contact only 26.5% of the time and struck out 26% of the time.
Alex Wood presents an easy target for Yankees hitters. The 33-year-old southpaw has lost some steam from the 2023 season so far and now owns a Stuff+ rating of just 74.
He has an average spin rate of just 2,013.5 RPM on his slider since the start of last season, which ranks him fourth among starters to throw 73 innings or more.
It’s a small sample size of 21 2/3 innings, but Wood was hit hard 48.6 percent of the time and struck out just 18.5 percent of the batters he faced.
The causality seems clear. He doesn’t have any swing and miss stuff at all, and if he’s in the zone, hitters will be there. Hitters have a 33% line drive rate on his pitches in the strike zone this season.
The Yankees are in their lowest division compared to left-handed pitchers, but still own a wRC+ of 100.
This grade could improve depending on their process and the talent on the roster. They own a fourth-best BB/K of 0.55 against lefties.
We should see the Yankees able to take advantage of this favorable matchup with an early lead.
They deserve a bet to cover the first five innings.
New York Post
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