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Middle East braces for chaos as Iran and West clash – POLITICO


Western warplanes and guided missiles flew over Yemen’s skies in the early hours of Friday, in a dramatic response to the deepening crisis ravaging the region, where the United States and its allies face a direct confrontation with Iranian-backed militants.

The strikes against Houthi fighters are a response to weeks of fighting in the Red Sea, where the group has attempted to attack or hijack dozens of civilian cargo ships and tankers in retaliation for Israel’s military offensive in Gaza . Washington launched the massive aerial bombardment of the group’s military stores and drone launch sites in partnership with British forces and with the support of a growing coalition including Germany, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada , South Korea and Bahrain.

Tensions between Tehran and the West have escalated in the weeks since its ally Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7, while Hezbollah, the military group that controls much of the southern Lebanon, has intensified its rocket fire across the border. Along with Hamas and Hezbollah, the Houthis are part of the “Axis of Resistance” led by Iran and opposed to both the United States and Israel.

Today, the prospect of large-scale conflict in one of the world’s most politically fragile and strategically important regions frightens both security analysts and energy markets.

Escalation Fears

Houthi leaders responded to the strikes, which saw US and British forces hit more than 60 targets in 16 locations, with characteristic bravado. They warned that the United States and the United Kingdom “will have to prepare to pay a heavy price and bear all the disastrous consequences” of what they called “blatant aggression.”

“We will confront America, bring it to its knees and burn its battleships, all its bases and all those who cooperate with it, whatever the cost,” threatened Abdulsalam Jahaf, a member of the group’s security council.

However, following the nighttime operation, Camille Lons, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said there could now be “a period of calm because it may take some time for Iran to to replenish the Houthis’ stocks” before they can resume. high-intensity attacks on ships in the Red Sea. But, she warned, their motivation to continue targeting shipping will likely remain unchanged.

Western strikes are unlikely to put an immediate end to Houthi aggression, acknowledged Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. national intelligence officer for the Middle East. “This will almost certainly mean continuing to respond to Houthi strikes, and potentially with escalating aggression. »

“The Houthis see themselves as having little to lose, emboldened militarily by Iranian support and confident that the United States will not undertake a ground war,” he said.

Iran also upped the ante earlier this week by boarding and commandeering a Greek-operated tanker carrying Iraqi crude destined for Turkey, intercepting it as it transited the Strait of Hormuz. The ship, the St. Nikolas, had previously been apprehended for violating Iranian oil sanctions and its cargo was confiscated and sold by the U.S. Treasury Department. Its Greek captain and crew of 18 Filipino nationals are now detained by Iran, with this incident marking a sharp escalation of threats to maritime traffic.

Israeli connection

Washington and London are struggling to distinguish their attempt to deter the Red Sea Houthis from the war in Gaza, fearing that merging the two could give Tehran a propaganda advantage in the Middle East. The Houthis and Iran want to achieve the opposite.

Houthi leaders say their attacks on maritime traffic are aimed at pressuring Israel to stop its bombing of the Gaza Strip and insist they only target commercial vessels linked to Israel or intended to dock in the Israeli port of Eilat, a point contested by the West. powers.

“The Houthis claim that their attacks on military and civilian vessels are somehow linked to the ongoing conflict in Gaza – which is completely baseless and illegitimate. The Houthis also say they specifically target Israeli-owned or Israel-bound ships. This is simply not true, they are indiscriminately firing at ships with ties to the entire world,” a senior US official said at a news conference in Washington on Friday.

Wider crisis in the Middle East

The Red Sea is not the only flashpoint where U.S. and European forces and their allies confront Iran and its partners.

In November, U.S. F-15 fighter jets struck a weapons storage facility in eastern Syria that the Pentagon said was used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Shiite militants it support in this war-torn country. The response came after dozens of US troops were reportedly injured in attacks in Iraq and Syria linked to Tehran.

The war between Israel and Hamas also risks expanding, after an explosion killed one of the militant group’s commanders in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, in early January. Hezbollah has promised a quick response and tensions have soared along the border between the two countries, with Israeli civilians evacuated from their homes in towns and villages near the border.

All of this contributes to an increasingly unstable environment that worries neighboring countries, said Christian Koch, director of the Gulf Research Center, based in Saudi Arabia.

“The stakes are high right now and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and others are extremely concerned about further escalation and retaliation,” he said. “Today, the danger of regional escalation has further increased, which could mean that Iran will become more involved in the conflict, which would constitute a dangerous downward spiral. »

While long-planned efforts to normalize Saudi-Israeli relations collapsed following the October 7 attack and subsequent military response, Riyadh pursued a policy of de-escalation with the Houthis after a decade of violent conflict. sought an almost unprecedented rapprochement with Iran.

“Saudi Arabia has only one goal: to prevent this from escalating into a wider regional war,” said Tobias Borck, a Middle East security expert at the Royal United Services Institute. “They have tried in recent years to end their intervention in the war in Yemen, including through negotiations with the Houthis and, from everything we know from the outside, (they) are reasonably close of an agreement.”

The Western coalition is therefore a source of concern rather than relief for the Gulf States.

“Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are staying out of this coalition because they don’t want the Houthis to attack them like they have for years and years with cruise missiles,” the official said. Retired US General Mark Kimmitt, former US Assistant Secretary of Foreign Affairs. State for politico-military affairs. However, U.S. or European troops on the ground are unlikely to be needed, he added, because “our current capabilities to detect, repair and attack even mobile missile launchers are quite well honed.”

Considerable consequences

At the intersection of Europe and Asia, the Red Sea is a vital artery for energy and international trade. Maritime traffic across the region has already fallen by 20 percent, Rear Admiral Emmanuel Slaars, joint commander of French forces in the region, told reporters on Thursday.

According to data released this week by Germany’s IfW Kiel, global trade fell 1.3% between November and December, with Houthi attacks likely a contributing factor.

Container volume in the Red Sea has also fallen and is currently almost 70 percent lower than normal, the institute said. In December, this led to increased transport costs and times, and “considerably lower” EU imports and exports than in November.

In evidence of the impact on industrial supply chains, US electric vehicle maker Tesla announced on Friday that it would close its factory in Germany for two weeks.

About 12 percent of the world’s oil and 8 percent of its gas normally pass through the waterway, along with hundreds of cargo ships. Oil prices soared more than 2.5 percent following the strikes, fueling market concerns about the impact a broader conflict could have on the region’s oil supplies, particularly in those carried through the Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and the world. most important oil choke point.

Houthi attacks on the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways, have already caused major shipping companies, including oil giant BP, to suspend shipments via the Red Sea, opting instead for a lengthy detour around the Cape of Good Hope.

According to Borck, the impact on energy prices has been limited so far, but will depend on what happens next.

“Here we must look for the actions of two actors. One is about the Houthis, how they react, and the other, of course, is Iran’s reaction,” he said. Even if Tehran has the “nuclear option” of completely closing the Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely to do so at this stage.

“I don’t think the Strait of Hormuz is next. I think there would be several steps on the escalation ladder first,” he added.

But Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert at the Brussels think tank Bruegel, warned that a growing confrontation with Iran could lead to tougher enforcement of sanctions on its oil exports. The West has turned a blind eye to Tehran’s increased sales to China following the war in Ukraine, which has eased some pressure on global energy markets.

A crackdown, he believes, “could lead to a substantial rise in global oil prices, pushing inflation higher and further complicating central banks’ efforts to control it.”

However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could help offset such a move by increasing their own production – provided they are willing to risk Iran’s wrath.

Gabriel Gavin reported from Yerevan, Armenia. Antonia Zimmermann from Brussels and Jamie Dettmer from Tel Aviv.



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