With some shutdown pain points delayed, congressional talks going ‘nowhere’: NPR

As the Trump administration has avoided some of the most painful impacts of the government shutdown and a federal court has ruled to halt layoffs of thousands of federal workers, the sense of urgency at the Capitol to break the impasse may be fading — at least for now.

During previous shutdowns, Congress passed legislation to cover military salaries, while headlines on topics such as closing national parks and shutting down agencies unable to provide services have ratcheted up pressure on both parties.

With this stop, the dynamic is different. Day after day, top congressional leaders hold dueling news conferences, but there are no serious negotiations and the House hasn’t voted in weeks. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said he doesn’t intend to see the House return until Senate Democrats break down their opposition to a House-passed stopgap bill to fund federal agencies through Nov. 21.

After the Senate’s 10th vote to fund the government failed Thursday, Sen. Peter Welch, Democrat of Vermont, said efforts to end the shutdown were “nowhere.” The Senate finished its work and returned home, ensuring that the shutdown will extend into a fourth week.

One reason for the shift is that Congress has been sidelined from any effort to deal with the consequences as the Trump administration takes the lead.

On Tuesday, the White House Office of Management and Budget said in a social media post that it was “doing everything possible to batten down the hatches and overcome Democratic intransigence.”

The administration’s efforts took several forms. The Pentagon transferred money to cover the military’s Oct. 15 paychecks. The administration tapped $300 million in tariff revenue to keep a nutrition program for low-income women and children operational. And on Thursday, he announced he would ensure that 70,000 law enforcement officers within the Department of Homeland Security — including at TSA and ICE — are paid “for all hours worked during the shutdown period.”

The OMB did not respond to a request for comment on additional plans to cover salaries for law enforcement or other federal workers, or what type of additional layoffs might be announced. President Trump has said “Democratic programs” would be cut and face layoffs or permanent closures, but no details have yet been released.

Predicting difficult days ahead

Democrats largely argue that the administration’s actions are illegal and that there is bipartisan support for bills to cover the costs of soldiers’ pay and aid to low-income women and children.

And while the administration’s efforts may have delayed some challenges related to shuttering targeted programs and agencies, Democrats say the moves also prolong the impasse by removing pressure points that have pushed the sides to negotiate in the past.

This approach “may or may not alleviate the pressure,” according to Welch, but he said it is not sustainable.

Earlier this week, House GOP Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., praised the president for ensuring soldiers don’t miss their final paycheck. But broader impacts “are only just beginning,” he warned.

“Airports will be inundated with flight cancellations and delays in the middle of the busiest time for travel all year, and the list goes on and on,” Emmer said.

Democrats are using their only leverage in the minority — denying the Republican Party enough votes to advance the House-passed stopgap funding bill — as a way to force a debate on expiring health care subsidies. They believe the public increasingly understands that significant premium increases are on the horizon if Congress doesn’t act, which could force the Republican Party to the table.

Rep. James Walkinshaw, Democrat of Virginia, is among those who believe pressure on the Republican Party could soon increase. Walkinshaw represents a suburban district outside Washington with a large number of federal workers.

He says there is currently no legal mechanism to pay air traffic controllers, nor any way to deal with what he described as the unpredictable markets farmers face due to President Trump’s tariff policies.

“Every day the shutdown continues, it becomes more and more difficult for the administration to try to play whack-a-mole and mitigate the impacts.”

November 1 could be a key date

November 1 marks the start of open enrollment for people with coverage through the Affordable Care Act. Most states will send out notices detailing the cost of coverage without federal subsidies, and lawmakers on both sides openly admit the shutdown could stretch for weeks. Democrats believe it could serve as a mechanism to change things at the Capitol.

“What is so simple at the heart of all this is that the people who will have health care in 2025, aided by the tax credits, should have access to that health care in 2026? » Welch said in an interview. He said that in Vermont, notices began going out Oct. 15, with some families facing increases of $25,000.

“This is about all of our families, this is not about a deal with a red state, a blue state, or who you voted for,” according to Welch.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said he was happy to sit down with Democrats, but he stressed that any deal on health care “will happen after the government opens up.” Thune says he suggested Democrats vote on a proposal to fix health care subsidies, but he can’t guarantee an outcome.

Referring to Senate Democrats, Thune said, “These are not people who want to get things done. These are people who want to fight Trump and appease all the people who are coming to town this weekend,” he told reporters, referring to a “No Kings” rally sponsored by progressive activist groups opposed to the Trump administration’s policies.

Democrats see Trump as the only person capable of changing the current dynamic. Many cite his love of the “deal” and the fact that voters in red states who supported him rely more on tax credits than those in blue states.

“As soon as he gets engaged, this matter could be resolved in a day or two,” Senator Tim Kaine, Democrat of Virginia, said Thursday.