The negotiations of President Donald Trump to end the Ukraine War are going nowhere. Ukraine is on board, but Russia is not.
Now Trump’s best diplomat indicates that he could move away from the table. It is a classic technique of realization directly from the 1987 Trump book, “The Art of the Deal”.
“We are not going to continue with this company for weeks and months,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday after tense meetings with European and Ukrainian officials. “So we have to determine very quickly now, and I’m talking about a few days, whether or not it is in the coming weeks.”
“If it is not possible … then I think that the president is probably at a point where he will say:” Well, we have finished “,” added Rubio.
Trump, who campaigned to end the Ukraine war quickly, wrote in his book to “know when moving away from the table”.
“The worst thing you can do in an agreement is desperate to do so,” he wrote. “This makes the other feel blood, and then you are dead. The best thing you can do is deal with strength, and the lever effect is the greatest force you can have. A lever effect is to have something the other wants. Or better, the needs. Or better still, just can’t happen.”
The book can have decades, but it is as relevant as ever for Trump’s negotiation strategies – at least according to some in its orbit.
“Many of you in the media have clearly failed” the art of agreement “, told press secretary Karoline Leavitt to journalists earlier this month in response to questions about Trump “Liberation Day” prices strategy. “You clearly haven’t seen what President Trump does here.”
Charles Kupchan, a principal researcher of the foreign relations council, told Business Insider that “it is difficult to know how the seriousness of Rubio’s suggestion that the United States is ready to move forward ‘if progress by finishing war in Ukraine is not in immediate research” because “the position of the Trump administration on many political problems change almost daily”.
“It is not clear if the passage means to abandon the efforts to put the war at its end, ending the United States to Ukraine, abandoning the attempt to reset relations with Russia – or a combination of the three,” added Kupchan. “Obviously, the Trump administration is frustrated that its promises to end war will not address.”
Kupchan said that hope lies in the current mineral agreement, on which negotiations are underway. “Kyiv has an imperative interest in convincing Trump not to move away from supporting Ukraine – and the mineral agreement can help achieve this result. An agreement in a way seems likely, although his conditions are still at stake.”
The ultimatum of Rubio landed as well as the vice-president JD Vance, meeting the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome, expressed his optimism in putting an end to the “very brutal war”. The comments of Rubio de Paris, where he presented an American peace framework which would have received an “encouraging reception”, painted a more urgent image.
The Kremlin recognized “certain progress” but noted difficult contacts with Washington, insisting to protect Russian interests. The explicit deadline of Rubio “Matter of Days” suggests that the rhythm of Moscow does not correspond to Washington’s requests.
If the United States takes a step back, the implications are austere. Without Washington brandishing its unique lever effect – the threat of more strict sanctions against Russia or the reduction of kyiv’s military aid pipeline – most observers think that the peace process would probably disintegrate.
Tom Wright, a principal researcher at the BrooKings Institute and former head of the Biden administration, called him “absolutely absurd” that the administration is about to throw in the towel on the negotiations on the Russian-Ukraine war without even trying to put pressure on Russia. “Ukraine wants an immediate ceasefire. The maximalist objectives of Putin and the desire to subjugate Ukraine are the main obstacles to peace.
Ian Bremmer, the founder and president of the Eurasia group, told Bi that “American coordination on negotiations with Europe and Ukraine in Paris sends a clearer message to Putin than if he wants a agreement with Trump (who has a lot of long -term strategic advantages for the Kremlin), he will have to accept a long -term Cessor.”
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