Health

Will the surge in COVID-19 cases slow in the coming months? Here’s what experts say

LOS ANGELES (KABC) — Health officials say we’re facing the biggest summer wave of COVID-19 in two years. Will we see a slowdown in the coming months?

“After a big wave, people have temporary immunity,” said Dr. Otto Yang, an infectious disease specialist at UCLA’s Geffen School of Medicine.

He said the honeymoon period would not last long. Variants are evolving and people are less on guard, but vaccination remains our best weapon.

The FDA approved an updated COVID-19 vaccine on Thursday. The shots are designed to more closely target recent virus strains and, hopefully, variants that will also cause problems this winter.

What’s in the new COVID-19 vaccine?

This fall’s COVID-19 vaccine recipe is tailored to a new branch of the Omicron family. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines target a subtype called KP.2, which was common earlier this year.

Although other offshoots, including KP.3.1.1, are now spreading, they are close enough that vaccines promise cross-protection.

A Pfizer spokesperson said the company has submitted data to the FDA showing that its updated vaccine “generates a significantly improved response” against multiple virus subtypes compared to last fall’s vaccine.

“Vaccine manufacturers are trying to keep up and put the sequences into the vaccines that are best suited to what’s circulating,” Dr. Yang said.

Antibody protection against KP.2 and other variants is short-lived.

“The antibodies work very early and keep the virus at such low levels that the infection is not really established, it probably lasts a few months,” Dr. Yang said.

He added that antibodies wane because of the virus, not the vaccines. One strategy is to get vaccinated again after four months, depending on your health and whether you have been exposed to a high risk, such as travel.

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When should you get vaccinated?

People at high risk of contracting the virus should not wait, but instead plan to get vaccinated as soon as vaccines become available in their area, experts advise. This includes older adults, people with weakened immune systems or other serious medical conditions, nursing home residents and pregnant women.

“If you are a very high-risk person because you have a weakened immune system and because you are older, it probably makes sense to get vaccinated more frequently, every four to six months,” Dr. Yang said.

He added: “If you’re young and healthy, I think it’s every six months to a year. You just have to calibrate it.”

It may help you avoid a symptomatic infection, but Yang said simply getting a COVID vaccine also boosts your body’s T-cell memory and that’s what keeps you out of the hospital.

“T cell immunity probably lasts longer. We don’t know exactly how long, and that’s the type of immunity that keeps you from getting very sick or dying if you get COVID,” Yang said.

Studies show that the more infected you are, the higher your risk of long-term complications. Yang reminds us that wearing masks, social distancing and hand washing remain important tools.

“Anything that is possible to do without disrupting real life too much, you should try to do,” he said.

According to the CDC, anyone who recently had COVID-19 can wait three months after recovery before getting vaccinated, until immunity to the infection begins to wane.

Health officials say it’s possible to get the COVID-19 and flu shots at the same time, to avoid having to make two trips to the clinic. But while many pharmacies already offer flu shots, the best time to get vaccinated is typically between late September and October, just before the flu starts to spread in colder weather.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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