Why you will have to pay even more for your chocolate

The price of cocoa beans continues to rise. What has been the evolution of its quotation over the last three years?

Two years ago, we were at $2,000 per tonne on world markets. In October 2024, it reached $7,000, and by mid-December, it rose to $12,000. To summarize, the price of cocoa, which had already doubled in two years, increased by 300% between January and December 2024.

Why this unprecedented outbreak?

There is a large production deficit due, essentially, to climatic hazards. The two largest cocoa producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, which represent 45% and 18% of world production respectively, have suffered one disaster after another. Floods, droughts and viral attacks have ruined their last four harvests. The ICCO, the International Cocoa Organization, predicts that there will be a shortage of 478,000 tonnes this year, something unheard of even during the previous record in 1977. Ivory Coast alone has reduced its forecasts. to 1.9 million tonnes, instead of 2.2 million initially. Stocks are at their lowest level in 46 years. An imbalance between supply and demand which fuels speculation.

Hasn’t the entry into application of the European regulation aimed at combating deforestation (EUDR), which the Strasbourg Parliament has just voted to postpone for one year, also contributed to this increase?

Yes, because Ivory Coast did not wait until January 1 to act, the date on which the ban on importing cocoa from forest areas into the European Union should have been applied. The country’s authorities have already destroyed non-compliant cocoa plantations. The EUDR, which excludes 12% of Ivorian production from trade, reduces the available supply and will lead to further price increases. Indeed, local producers, encouraged by better remuneration to produce more sustainable cocoa, will only harvest the first pods from their young plants in three to five years.

What are the consequences for French processors?

Manufacturers and artisan chocolate makers pay high prices for their cocoa and see their margins reduced. To initially avoid passing on this loss to the consumer, the strategy consists of reducing weight (shrinkflation), cutting back on quality (cheapflation) or finding plant-based or chemical alternatives to chocolate. The key lies in innovation because, with the multiplication and intensification of extreme climatic events, foodstuffs of tropical origin, whether cocoa or coffee, will encounter ever more production problems.

And for the consumer? Will he have to tighten his belt on these pleasure products?

There is always a gap between the increase in the price of a raw material on the world market and the repercussions on the end consumer. The box of Christmas chocolates sold in supermarkets has only increased from 0.50 to 1 euro. The pastry log, which is a processed product, burned less than the 85% cocoa bar. But if, for the moment, the chocolate makers have taken most of the loss on their shoulders, it will not last: let’s say that we have absorbed the +200% from 2022-2023. It remains to collect the + 300% of 2024. Which, in the long term, will also influence the price of spreads and that of chocolate biscuits.