Why the prices of President Trump is stirring the “national crisis” in Japan: NPR

Robert Ward is the president of Japan to the London-based reflection group, the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), where he also heads the Geo-Economic and Strategy Program. He is the author of “Evaluation of the new great strategy of Japan“.

Since the prices of the “liberation day” of President Trump who targeting the friends and enemies of America, there has been the alarm in Japan, one of the most faithful allies in the United States of Asia, which also considers the United States as its most important export market, With approximately 20% of all Japanese exports.

Although many of them are interrupted, Trump’s prices have a major threat to Japan already Economy that has been. The uncertainty of the American tariff policy towards China and the Association of Nations of Southeast Asia (ASEAN), where Japanese companies are also strongly invested. It is therefore not surprising that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba described the situation like “national crisis. “”

Ishiba has undergone the pressure of Japan opposition parties for its prudent manipulation of tariff negotiations with the United States, this partly reflects the electoral cycle of Japan. Two important elections are looming in July: first the poll of the Tokyo assembly, then the one for the upper room of the Japanese parliament. Ishiba and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are Flagging in opinion polls And it can therefore fight to perform well in them.

The LDP with its coalition partner, Komeito, is a minority government since its poor performance in the general elections of last year, which was held immediately after the appointment of Ishiba As Prime Minister. The two parties have a majority in the upper chamber of the Parliament, but losing in July would seriously compromise the government’s ability to adopt politics and could even trigger Ishiba’s resignation as Prime Minister. The opposition thus perfumes blood.

The limited place of Japan for maneuver

But the Japan room for maneuver in pricing negotiations with the United States is limited. Unlike, for example, to the European Union, it does not enjoy the advantage of being able to negotiate as a block. While Japan is still one of the world’s largest economies, its gross domestic product exceeds only 10th the size of American access to the American market is also vital for many Japanese companies given the domestic internal market and the increase in geopolitical difficulties with the Chinese market. This is a reason for Nippon Steel offer for Us Steel.

In addition, the United States is a large supplier of food, raw materials and mineral fuels in Japan. Indeed, these articles represent some 30% From the overall imported invoice of Japan in the United States, so Japan may not afford to enter a full-fledged trade war with the great American assets of the American Treasurys, it is also unlikely to be armed. Japan has briefly flirted with this option in a previous combat of bilateral economic tension In the late 1990sonly to row quickly.

Tokyo must also balance his economic needs with his primordial strategic priority: preserve his security relationship with Washington. The United States is the only ally in the Japan security treaty, and it is unlikely to change. While Ishiba floated the idea of Create an Asian NATO Just before becoming Prime Minister, this seems to be distant given the shortage of potential partners in the region and the wider issue of the United States of its security commitments abroad under the second Trump administration.

The strong deterioration of the strategic environment around Japan in recent years has further increased the importance for Tokyo of the US-Japan Security Alliance. Seen from Tokyo, its immediate neighbors in continental Asia have a threat arc, from Russia to the north, with which relations have cooled since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with nuclear and hostile weapons of North Korea in the center and China to the south, which increases its threat of Taiwan. China-Russia and North Russia, strategic alignment and cooperation also increases Japan’s strategic anxiety.

For these reasons, it is also unlikely that Japan seeks to cover itself against the unpredictability of American exchanges thanks to much warmer links with China. Under the administration of Ishiba, Sino-Japanese relations were slightly warmed up. But there are important obstacles to deeper improvements. Tokyo’s concerns about Beijing’s intentions to Taiwan have been mentioned – it considers any cross instability as also affecting Japanese security. The intensification of Chinese intrusions in the waters around the Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands, which are near Taiwan and that Japan controls and Chinese claims, also cause an alarm to Tokyo.

New Japanese tools and historical experience

Despite the constraints, Japan is not without options both in its commercial negotiations with the United States and more broadly. Regarding the first, Japan could, for example, agree to increase imports of American agricultural goods, despite the political sensitivities on rice. The agricultural lobby of Japan is the shadow of its former myself – the number of farmers decreases and exchange liberalization under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe The 2012-2020 administration reduced its political influence.

Japan poor in resources could also agree without too much difficulty in importing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the United States, or To help finance a LNG project in Alaska. Certain concessions on non -pricing obstacles to imports of American manufacturing cars in Japan also seem likely. At his first summit with Trump, Ishiba also promised to increase Japan’s investment in the United States to “an unprecedented amount“From 1 billion of dollars, something that Japan will suffer pressure to deliver.

Japan also has an agency in its other international links. Japan is, for example, the greatest economy of the complete and progressive agreement for the Mega Trade Bloc and its de facto leader massively. Membership of the CPTPP in the United Kingdom, now a strategic partner close to Japan in 2024 should give Japan a precious political support in its efforts to keep the global commercial canals open. Membership in Japan to the other Bloc of Asia Mega-commerce, the Regional Economic Partnership (RCEP), is also strategically important for Tokyo. Although RCEP is dominated by China, Japan members offer Tokyo a chance to help shape any reconfiguration of regional trade triggered by American tariff policy.

Finally, it should be noted that few countries have such in -depth experience in the management of lurchs in American politics as Japan. If after President Richard Nixon Delily of the US dollar Gold in 1971, which upset the foreign and economic policy of Japan, the American economy “Japan denigration“Among the 80s, or the United States” Japan who passed “in favor of China in the 1990s, Japan responded pragmatically by changing policy if necessary to ensure that it was able to preserve the Critical Security Alliance with the United States

This time, Japan also has the chance that its foreign, geo-economic and defense defense activism since the second administration of Prime Minister Abe has bequeathed Tokyo of strong tools to deal with what promises to be another deep change in the behavior of its economic and key security interlocutor.