Abu Dhabi, water
Cnn
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The United States and Iran should start a third cycle of nuclear talks this weekend, entering what experts describe as a more difficult phase of technical negotiations while Washington presents its conditions.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that the United States is not considering that Iran enriching its own nuclear material, but rather is nuclear fuel – uranium – necessary for a civil energy program. Iran has repeatedly said that its right to enrich uranium is not negotiable.
The United States and Iran have described previous and positive talks, despite the threat of President Donald Trump in the United States and Israeli military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites if Tehran accept An agreement.
But Saturday’s talks can be more complex because they should involve negotiations on the details of the Iranian nuclear program, an area where Tehran and Washington remain strongly divided.
Here’s what we know.
A nuclear agreement was concluded in 2015 between Iran and the global powers, including the United States, under which Iran had agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions which paralyzed its economy.
Ponsider known as the Complete Complete Action Plan (JCPOA), the 2015 agreement enabled Iran to enrich uranium at a level which assured that its nuclear program would be exclusively peaceful.
This agreement was abandoned by Trump in 2018 during his first presidential term. Iran retaliated by increasing its enrichment of uranium up to 60% purity, closer to the level of around 90% necessary to make a bomb.
Iran insists that its nuclear program remains peaceful.
Last month, Trump sent a letter to the supreme Iranian chief of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei offering negotiations on a new nuclear agreement, clearly indicating that Iran had a deadline for two months to accept a new agreement, said a familiar source with the content of the letter to CNN.
What does Trump want and what are the main problems?
The president said that he wanted a “stronger” agreement with Iran than that reached in 2015 under the Obama administration, but US officials fell on their requests during the last month.
In its attempt to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, it is not clear if the United States requires a complete dismantling of its nuclear program – including its civil energy component – or if it would allow such a program if Iran abandons a domestic enrichment of uranium.
This month, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to talks in Iran, said that Iran was not necessary to enrich uranium beyond what is necessary for a nuclear energy program. He ceased to demand that Iran completely stop enriching uranium or dismantling his nuclear program.
He reversed his position a day later in a press release on X in which he declared that any final agreement with Iran would force him to “stop and eliminate his nuclear enrichment and armament program”.
The US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, called Tehran to fully dismantle his nuclear program.
Then, in an interview on Wednesday, Rubio declared that Iran could have a civil nuclear program, but it should import the necessary nuclear fuel rather than producing it at the national level.
“There is a way to a civil and peaceful nuclear program if they want one,” Rubio told Free Press. “But if they insist to enrich themselves (uranium), then they will be the only country in the world which has no” weapons program “, but enriching. And therefore, I think it is problematic.”
While most countries that enrich uranium at the national level also have a nuclear weapon program, others do not. Brazil, for example, enriches a certain uranium at the national level for its energy program, according to World Nuclear Association. Meanwhile, the British-Dutch nuclear consortium Urenco operates enrichment factories in Germany and the Netherlands, none of which has nuclear weapons. These countries, like Iran, are part of the United Nations Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (TNP), which aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.
Last week, the Secretary of the United States of Energy, Chris Wright, told New York Times in Saudi Arabia that Riyadh and Washington were on a “path” to reach an agreement that could see the kingdom enrich uranium.
“The problem is the control of sensitive technology. Are there solutions to that which involve an enrichment here in Saudi Arabia? Yes,” he said.
Iran has doubled on its right to enrich uranium and accused the Trump administration of having sent mixed signals.
“Iran’s enrichment (program) is a real and authentic question, and we are ready to strengthen confidence in potential concerns, but the question of enrichment is not negotiable,” said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who represents Iran during nuclear talks, was cited by the Iranian Broadcaster Press TV.
Tehran presented its “red lines” in talks, including “threatening language” by the Trump administration and “excessive requirements concerning the Iranian nuclear program”. The United States must also refrain from raising problems relating to the Iranian defense industry, Iranian media said, probably referring to its ballistic missile program, which the allies of the American Middle East consider a threat to their security.
Meanwhile, Iran’s highest leadership tackled the talks with extreme caution. In his first comments on the issue, Khamenei said that Tehran was “neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic” about negotiations with the United States.
The Islamic Republic has also tried to present a potential nuclear agreement as beneficial for the United States. This week, Araghchi presented the possibility that American companies play a role in the Iranian nuclear energy program, promising “tens of billions of dollars in potential contracts”.
Alongside high level talks between Araghchi and Witkoff On Saturday, technical teams will start to hammer the details of a potential agreement.
Michael Anton, head of state policies of the State Department, will lead the technical team on the American side, said spokesperson Tammy Bruce on Thursday.
The team will consist of around 12 work level experts from various American government agencies and will discuss more granular details on a path to a new nuclear agreement, such as the relief of potential sanctions and the limitations of the Iranian nuclear program, a familiar source told CNN.
Technical discussions are “difficult” as they will Try to solve the problems that have not been pursued in the 2015 agreement, said Trita Parsi, executive vice-president of the Quincy Institute based in Washington DC. “This requires technical expertise to ensure that these different ideas can really become feasible.”
In addition to the question of enrichment, complications can emerge if “poisoned pills” are made, including a request to fully dismantle the nuclear program of Iran, “Libyan style”, as Israel added, he added.
Libya in 2003 dismantled its nuclear program in the hope of infracting a new era of relations with the United States after its two-decaded oil embargo in the Moammar Gaddafi regime.
After abandoning its nuclear program, Libya went down to the civil war following an uprising supported by NATO 2011 which overthrew the Gaddafi regime and led to its murder. Iranian officials have long warned that a similar agreement would be rejected from the start.
Another obstacle could surface if the United States requires that Iranian nuclear program restrictions “be perpetuated,” said Parsi. “Meaning would not be like normal weapons control agreements, (where) the restrictions are limited over time and expire over time.”
The 2015 agreement had an expiration date, ending in October 2025, unless decided on the contrary to the United Nations Security Council.
When he withdrew from the agreement in 2018, Trump castigated the 10 -year delay of the agreement, saying that “even if Iran fully complies, the regime can always be on the point of a nuclear rash in a short time.”
Parsi said there may be an opportunity to extend the calendar. “But everything that grows towards infinitive and perpetuity restrictions will most likely fail, and perhaps by design.”
Where is Israel?
Israel was among the biggest defenders in Iran to fully dismantle its nuclear program so that he can never acquire a nuclear bomb.
Familiar sources with the case had previously declared to CNN that the news of the American-Iranian nuclear talks was “certainly not” to the taste of Israel, and it is not clear if Netanyahu had been warned of the negotiations or if it was consulted.
The only agreement that Netanyahu is considering as acceptable is a Nuclear Style Accord for Libya.
The New York Times reported last week that Trump welcomed Israel by hitting Iranian nuclear sites next month to leave talks with Tehran. The Israeli Prime Minister’s office did not deny the veracity of the article, claiming rather that Israel’s actions have delayed the Iran’s nuclear program.
Responding to the report, Trump said: “I wouldn’t say having kicked”, but “I’m not in a hurry to do it because I think Iran has a chance to have a big country and live happily without death.”
