OAKLAND — At a glance, Lawrence Butler’s first full year with the A’s has gone nothing short of good.
Butler made his first career start on April 12, launching a 445-foot home run that same night, but in 30 games he is hitting .185 with a .599 OPS. However, digging deeper, Butler’s tantalizing potential becomes clear.
He crushes the ball. He shows more patience. He plays fantastic defense. In short, it gives a lightning insight into being a fundamental piece.
“I imagine he’ll have a lot of success,” said Darren Bush, Oakland’s bench coach and hitting director. “He is big, strong and fast. When you have that combination and you’re willing to listen and learn and you’re willing to take in the information and use it, you’ll have a good chance of success.
The underlying number that immediately jumps out is his average exit velocity of 94.4 mph. Entering Friday, that puts him in the 97th percentile, tied with Shohei Ohtani and placing him just below Aaron Judge (94.6 mph) and Matt Olson (94.7 mph). It’s not just about exit speed. Almost all of Butler’s underlying numbers have gone from 23 to 24 so far:
- % hard hit: 37.1% to 52.7%
- xSLG: 0.419 to 0.469
- % barrel: 9.0% to 10.9%
- xwOBA: 0.289 to 0.356
- xBA: 0.232 to 0.256
“He has more control over himself,” Bush said. “He’s not wild in the box. He gets to a good hitting position. He stays behind the ball. He controls his head. It does the things you need to do to be accurate. Exit velocity is just a byproduct.
Regarding the contrast between Butler’s actual and expected stats, some bad luck might be at play. This season, Butler’s BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is .245. In contrast, the league average BABIP generally sits around .300. Calling someone unlucky is never as simple as having a below-average BABIP, but several plays illustrate Butler’s early misfortunes.
(All videos courtesy of Baseball Savant)
On April 16, center fielder Victor Scott II made a diving catch to find Butler’s line drive at 108.4 mph.
On April 19, Tyler Freeman had an incredible jump, turning extra bases into a 106.4 mph line.
On April 1, Butler was robbed of a hit on a 107.0 mph ground ball by Enmanuel Valdez, who made a diving save.
“These defenders are the best in the world at defending their position,” Butler said. “All you can control is hitting the ball hard and swinging shots. It helps me mentally. Even if I don’t get the results I want, I do everything I can to the best of my ability to control what I can control. Baseball is a game of averages, so I feel like everything will even out in the end.
When it comes to strikes, Butler has been particularly picky this year. After swinging on 47.8% of the pitches he saw in 2023, Butler is swinging on just 43.0% of the pitches in 2024. With more selectivity, Butler’s walk rate increased from 3.1%. in 2023 to 12.9% in 2024, a mark that ranks in the 84th percentile.
Butler attributes the improved discipline to an expanded mental database. Butler’s brief stint in Oakland last year allowed him to experience the speed and spin of the major leagues. During the offseason, Butler used a Spinball machine while working with Rays prospect Chandler Simpson at Georgia Tech, adjusting the settings so they could see “wicked pitches” to give Butler a better idea of the profiles of movement.
“You’re just trying to figure out what they’re trying to do to you,” Butler said. “They try to get you to play balls; you just have to take them. Sometimes you really want a hit, but you have to accept that you can walk, get on base, and help the team in ways other than hitting the ball.
Bush added: “His pitch selection has become exceptional. He doesn’t try to do too much. He just takes what they give him.
For pop and patience, Butler’s contact rate is worth monitoring. If he qualified, Butler’s contact percentage of 67.7 percent would be the 10th-worst mark in the league as of Friday. His Z-Contact%, or the contact rate of pitches in the strike zone, is 75.0%, which would be the fourth-worst mark if he qualified. Partly because of these difficulties, Butler is struck out more than a quarter of the time (28.0%).
Time will tell how Butler’s first full season goes, but with a combination of power, patience and range – his two strikeouts above average lead all good defenders in baseball – Butler has the foundation to a long career.
“The one thing I would say about Lawrence right now is he’s putting himself in the best position to succeed,” Bush said. “As long as he continues to do that and recognizes that that’s all he needs to do, he will be successful.”
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