In today’s newsletter, we looked at Washington’s offensive wizardry, Lamar Jackson’s playoff woes and the remaining coaching jobs. (Note: This was first published before the confirmation of former DC Lions Aaron Glenn as Jets coach, which you can read here).
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Washington has paired a franchise quarterback with a solid player, which is essential for success in the NFL. Hell, even Dan Snyder is gone. Whatever happens this Sunday, this team is in great shape.
If you’re wondering how Kliff Kingsbury helped Jayden Daniels become the most successful rookie QB in NFL history — and you should be, especially after Kingsbury called his best game against Detroit — then let’s catch up .
Some of the traits that helped make Washington’s offense special:
Stay in school. A few months ago, Bengals CB Cam Taylor-Britt calling Washington’s offense a “college” ploy wasn’t completely wrong. In a press conference earlier this year, HC Dan Quinn explained that the basis of former Texas Tech HC Kingsbury’s current offense was “(Daniels’) favorite concepts from LSU.”
Tempo on complexity. The Commanders use the no-huddle in 42.1 percent of plays, more than double the second-highest rate in the league. As film guru Ted Nguyen explained earlier this season, “Tempo is a great way to simplify the defensive look. »
Adaptation. As Ted’s recent column on coaching decisions explains, Kingsbury and Daniels learn from their mistakes. Quickly. An example: this OC generally preferred to keep the receivers in the same places. But after Terry McLaurin had just one catch for 10 yards against the Eagles in Week 11, they adjusted by nearly doubling his snaps on the right side of the formation, leading to more favorable matchups for the star receiver.
Daniels’ growth is particularly impressive. Watch his face in this GIF from his second start, and you’ll notice he can’t get past his first read before leaving his pockets clean and grabbing a bag:
As Ted pointed out, if Daniels had instead continued his progression, he would have spotted an open receiver over the middle:
I came back and looked; This plagued Daniels throughout that September match, as he rarely got past his first read.
Yet a week later, Daniels looked like a different player. Faced with a similar situation (his first read was covered), he ran through his options, finding an open Luke McCaffrey on a dig route for a first down.
It’s one of many improvements Daniels has made this year. I asked Ted what else he saw:
💬 After Week 3, you could see how comfortable Daniels was in the pocket and throwing over the middle. He had a few bad games when he got injured and couldn’t run as much, but he looks healthy and it’s just hard to shake him.
When he has time, he can follow his progress smoothly, and when he feels pressure, he can calmly escape the rush. He has been so good that it is difficult to identify one big area of needed improvement.
In Kingsbury’s offense, Daniels is the main reason Washington is one win away from the Super Bowl, a year after going 4-13. As David Aldridge writes, let it marinate.
Let’s start with the simmering debate you may have heard all week (and beyond): Does Lamar Jackson have what it takes to win big playoff games?
The bad: In eight playoff games, he is 3-5 with 11 turnovers for 10 touchdowns, while the potential three-time MVP’s completion percentage, EPA per dropback and passer rating are down from his regular season numbers. He had two turnovers in Sunday’s loss, his first multi-turnover game since…last year’s AFC Championship.
The not so bad: Throughout the 2023 and 2024 playoffs – and without Pro Bowl receiver Zay Flowers in the last two of those four games – Jackson’s passing EPA ranks ahead of Patrick Mahomes’. He’s averaging 68.5 rushing yards per game, and based on EPA, only Jayden Daniels’ two-game sample has been better against zone coverage, according to TruMedia.
I thought this graphic from Mike Sando illustrated Jackson’s growth in the playoffs well:
It also suggests that quarterbacks tend to regress toward their regular season performance level over time, as evidenced by how close they are to that midline.
On the bright side, in Sunday’s loss to Buffalo, Jackson led the Ravens in scoring on three of their final four possessions. The other opportunity ended with a Mark Andrews fumble. And if Andrews makes that two-point conversion, we could be debating something else entirely.
Perhaps more importantly, Jackson’s teammates believe in him: “As long as Lamar’s here, you’ll have a chance every year to win a Super Bowl,” guard Patrick Ricard said, beating reporter Jeff Zrebiec.
But in the future, do You do you believe Jackson can win big matches? Share your thoughts here. We’ll include them in tomorrow’s newsletter, along with other thoughts. Let’s move on to Dianna.
Yesterday, the afternoon was busy for the coaches:
Back to you, Jacob.
With the hottest candidate (Ben Johnson) and top job (Chicago) leaving the market together, here’s a quick look at which coach could land with each team. These are my own thoughts, based on close attention to daily reporting.
Raiders: With Johnson out, we move on to plan B. That could mean Pete Carroll, who would bring some much-needed positivity to an organization that could use him. I loved this nugget of AthleticsTop reporters: Raiders search coordinator Jed Hughes helped land Carroll with the Seahawks in 2010.
Jets: It still feels like Aaron Glenn or the collapse, doesn’t it? He would likely be joined by Detroit’s Chris Spielman or Washington’s Lance Newmark, who interviewed for the general manager role.
Saints: To me, Glenn seems to be their first choice. If I were Glenn, who spent almost as many years as a Saints player/assistant as he did on the Jets roster, I would choose New Orleans over Woody Johnson. Mike McCarthy feels like the replacement here.
Jaguar: With Bucs OC Liam Coen staying put, according to Adam Schefter, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jags hired former Jacksonville assistant Robert Saleh (although Bills OC Joe Brady would be more appealing to those of us with parts of Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy dynasty). NFL executives see it as a good landing spot.
Cowboys: I’m leaning toward current Eagles OC Kellen Moore, who spent five years as coach in Dallas before leading its division rival’s offense this season. Cowboys CO Brian Schottenheimer, Marty’s son, also entered the mix. Saad Yousuf explains why.
We’ll be back tomorrow with a preview of the AFC Championship, as well as what the newly eliminated Lions and Ravens could look like in 2025.
The most clicked yesterday: For the second day in a row, it was Amos Morale III’s article on the Texans having a lot to say about the officiating in their loss to the Chiefs. Three rounds?
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(Photo: Scott Taetsch, Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
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