Why Israel is so determined to launch an offensive in Rafah. And why are so many people opposed to it?

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel is determined to launch a ground offensive against Hamas in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost town, a plan that has sparked global concern because of the potential risk of harm to more than a million Palestinian civilians sheltering there.

Even as the United States, Egypt and Qatar pushed for a ceasefire deal, hoping it would avert an attack on Rafah, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated Tuesday that the army would move towards the city “with or without agreement” to achieve its objective. to destroy the militant group Hamas.

“We will enter Rafah because we have no other choice. We will destroy the Hamas battalions there, we will achieve all the objectives of the war, including the return of all our hostages,” he said.

Israel has approved military plans for its offensive and has moved troops and tanks into southern Israel in apparent preparation – although it remains unclear when or if this will take place.

Around 1.4 million Palestinians – more than half of Gaza’s population – are crowded into the city and its surrounding areas. Most of them fled their homes elsewhere in the territory to escape the Israeli onslaught and now face a heartbreaking new decision, or the danger of facing the brunt of a new assault. They live in overcrowded tent camps, overflowing UN shelters or overcrowded apartments, and rely on international aid for food, with sanitation systems and medical infrastructure paralyzed.

WHY RAFAH IS SO CRITICAL

Since Israel declared war in response to Hamas’ deadly cross-border attack on October 7, Netanyahu has said his central goal is to destroy its military capabilities.

Israel says Rafah is the last major Hamas stronghold in the Gaza Strip, after operations elsewhere dismantled 18 of the militant group’s 24 battalions, according to the military. But even in northern Gaza, the first target of the offensive, Hamas regrouped in certain areas and continued to launch attacks.

Israel says Hamas has four battalions in Rafah and must send ground forces to overthrow them. Some high-ranking militants may also be hiding in the city.

WHY THERE IS SO MUCH OPPOSITION TO ISRAEL’S PLAN

The United States urged Israel not to carry out the operation without a “credible” plan to evacuate civilians. Israel’s strategic partner Egypt said a military seizure by Israel of the Gaza-Egypt border – which is supposed to be demilitarized – or any move to push Palestinians towards Egypt would threaten its deal four-decade-old peace treaty with Israel.

Israel’s previous ground attacks, backed by devastating bombardments since October, razed large areas of northern Gaza and the southern town of Khan Younis and caused widespread civilian deaths, even after evacuation orders were issued. have been given for these areas.

The Israeli military says it plans to direct civilians from Rafah to “humanitarian islands” in central Gaza ahead of the planned offensive. He says he has ordered thousands of tents to shelter people. But he did not give details of his project. It is unclear whether it is logistically possible to move such a large population at once without suffering widespread suffering among a population already exhausted by multiple displacements and months of bombings.

Additionally, UN officials say an attack on Rafah would derail the humanitarian operation that is keeping the people of the Gaza Strip alive. and potentially push Palestinians toward even greater famine and mass death.

Some ports of entry have been opened in the north and the United States has promised that a port to deliver supplies by sea would be ready within weeks. But the majority of food, medicine and other materials enter Gaza from Egypt via Rafah or the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing – traffic that will likely be impossible in the event of an invasion.

The United States has said Israel should resort to targeted operations against Hamas inside Rafah without a major ground assault.

After Netanyahu’s latest comments, US national security spokesman John Kirby said: “We do not want to see a major ground operation in Rafah. We certainly do not want to see operations that have not considered the safety and security of those who have sought refuge in the city.

POLITICAL CALCULATIONS

The issue of the Rafah attack has serious political implications for Netanyahu. His government could be threatened with collapse if he fails to do so. Some of his ultranationalist and conservative religious partners could withdraw from the coalition if he signs a ceasefire agreement preventing an attack.

Critics of Netanyahu say he is more concerned with keeping his government intact and remaining in power than the national interest, a charge he denies.

One of his coalition members, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, said Tuesday that accepting a ceasefire agreement and not carrying out an operation in Rafah would be tantamount to “raising a white flag” and giving victory for Hamas.

On the other hand, Netanyahu risks increasing Israel’s international isolation – and alienating its main ally, the United States – if he attacks Rafah. His categorical refusal to be swayed by global pressure and his promises to launch the operation could be aimed at appeasing his political allies even as he considers a deal.

Or he could bet that international anger will remain largely rhetorical if he pursues the attack. The Biden administration has used increasingly harsh language to express concerns about Netanyahu’s conduct of the war, but it has also continued to supply weapons to Israel’s military and diplomatic support.

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