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Why is Trump headlining a campaign event in the Deep Blue Bronx?

Former President Donald Trump is set to make an unusual stop for a Republican candidate later this week.

On Thursday, the New Yorker will headline a campaign event in the Bronx, one of New York City’s five boroughs and one of the fastest-growing jurisdictions in the country.

The Bronx is so deeply Democratic that the borough is usually a secondary consideration for Republican presidential candidates and even most Republican candidates in the state.

So why bother?

While it may not help him win the Bronx, it will provide an opportunity for the former president to continue his national strategy to win over minority voters.

Trump makes inroads with black and Latino voters

There is virtually no chance that Trump will win the Bronx in November. The district has supported every Democratic presidential candidate since 1928.

In 2020, Trump managed to improve, if only slightly, his standing with Bronx voters, winning nearly 30,000 more votes in the Bronx than in 2016. Meanwhile, the Democratic vote share at the presidential election only increased by 2,000 votes.

While Biden ultimately defeated Trump in the Bronx (355,374 votes to 67,740) in 2020, the boost given to the ex-president was similar to the gains he made among working-class minority voters – particularly Latino voters – across the country that year.

It’s a policy shift that in 2020 allowed Trump to easily win Florida, including crucial Miami-Dade County, a heavily Latino jurisdiction that Democrats need to carry by a margin substantial to win statewide elections.

Even though New York City isn’t Florida, Trump’s campaign event in the Bronx is part of a larger strategy to win over minority voters who have shifted away from Democrats in recent years.

Trump’s speech to minority voters

Trump’s expected presence in the South Bronx will attempt to solidify his polling advantage on the economy.

He is also likely to, perhaps ironically, argue that he is the right candidate to reduce crime. Trump’s secret trial is taking place in nearby Manhattan, but New York City itself has recently witnessed a series of high-profile crimes.

“President Trump will ease financial pressures on households and restore law and order to New York!” » said the Trump campaign in announcing the event in the Bronx.

As millions of Americans worry about inflation and the cost of living, Trump wants to position himself as the candidate who can better address these issues, particularly for minority voters.

The Trump campaign is particularly targeting Latino voters, who will play a key role in battleground states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. The former president is also seeking to win over black voters, particularly black men.

It’s a strategy the Biden campaign is working to counter. The president is also courting Black and Latino voters across the country, highlighting the low unemployment rate under his tenure, as well as the administration’s work on issues such as housing affordability and infrastructure.

So while Trump won’t win the Bronx anytime soon, his appearance in a place where voters wouldn’t normally expect to see him could be an effective showcase for his broader national strategy.

And while the former president is also unlikely to win New York state this fall, he still hopes his stances on tax and immigration issues can provide him with an opening.

“We’re going to come to New York, we’re making a big play for New York,” he said during an appearance in Manhattan last month.


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