Thanks to a strong performance in metro Atlanta, strong turnout among black and young voters statewide, and a dual Senate race that boosted Democratic enthusiasm, Biden won Georgia by 11,779 votes out of nearly 5 million votes cast.
The state now has two Democratic U.S. senators, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, after years of Republican dominance at the federal level.
But Republicans also won every nonfederal statewide office in 2022, including Gov. Brian Kemp’s victory over his 2018 opponent, former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams. And the GOP retained control of the Georgia legislature.
Georgia therefore remains a highly competitive swing state, with Biden and former President Donald Trump hoping to win its 16 electoral votes.
Where is the race in Georgia less than seven months before the elections?
Biden greets supporters after speaking at a campaign event in Atlanta on March 9, 2024. Brynn Anderson/AP
Polls point to a tight race
A Wall Street Journal state poll conducted in Georgia in March showed Trump barely a point ahead (44% to 43%) over Biden among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup.
In a race between the two major party candidates, Georgia gave Trump his narrowest advantage among the seven swing states surveyed, which also included Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Other recent surveys, including those by CBS News and Marist, have shown Trump ahead by 3 and 4 points, respectively.
According to the Marist Georgia Poll, the top issue among Georgians heading into November is preserving democracy. It was cited by 25% of respondents as their top problem, and Biden had a one-point advantage over Trump in who would handle the issue best.
Immigration and inflation were the second and third most important issues for registered voters. Trump had the advantage on those.
A view of the gold-domed Georgia State Capitol and downtown Atlanta. AP Photo/Steve Helber, file
Metro Atlanta is an electoral heavyweight
In 2020, Biden’s statewide victory was powered by Fulton County, anchored by Atlanta, and the populated suburbs surrounding the capital. Several of these jurisdictions, including Cobb and Gwinnett counties, were once reliably Republican but have tilted heavily toward Democrats at the federal level. Neighboring Clayton, DeKalb and Henry counties also strongly supported Biden.
Those voting shifts gave Democrats a major opening in a state that, as recently as 2012, was widely considered out of reach for then-President Barack Obama during his re-election campaign.
In 2020, Biden easily won Fulton County (73% to 26%) against Trump and received nearly 243,000 votes in that county alone, largely countering the then-president’s strong performance in many peri-urban and rural areas of the state. areas.
Mobilizing voters in the state’s major population centers will be key for Biden this year, especially given his early struggles motivating many young and minority voters.
Trump stops at a Chick-fil-A in Atlanta on April 10, 2024. AP Photo/Jason Allen
Will the Republicans unite?
In last month’s presidential primary in Georgia, Trump easily defeated his former opponent, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Trump won more than 497,000 votes in the primary, compared to Haley’s roughly 78,000 votes. But Haley still received about 20,000 votes on Election Day, even though she left the race a week early.
A large share of Haley’s voters came from the Atlanta metro area, primarily from the suburbs where Trump was tripped up by Biden in 2020.
And many of those voters weren’t happy that Trump challenged his statewide defeat in the aftermath of that election, leading the then-president to pressure Kemp and Secretary of State. State Brad Raffensperger to help him overturn Biden’s victory in Georgia.
Kemp and Raffensperger have refused to help Trump, and despite the former president’s failed attempts to oust both men from office in 2022, they remain the highest-profile Republicans in state government.
The 2024 results in Georgia will be a huge test of the Trump-era Republican Party’s resilience in what has become a true purple state.
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