-
Jake Michaels
MELBOURNE, Australia — And then there were four. Jannik Sinner. Alexander Zverev. Novak Djokovic. Ben Shelton.
After 11 days of gripping competition at Melbourne Park, only four men remain in contention for Australian Open glory. One of them is looking to defend his crown, two are looking to secure their first Grand Slam title and one is, well, simply looking for as-yet-unmatched greatness.
Here’s why each semi-finalist can go on and lift the trophy:
Jannik Sinner (1)
No tennis player has had as much success as Sinner over the past 12 months. In fact, in 2024, he had one of the greatest years in sports history, winning the Australian Open, US Open and ATP Finals, winning over $19 million of prize money and seizing first place in the world.
Sinner hasn’t quite reached Djokovic’s levels of dominance at Melbourne Park – who has? – but it’s certainly going in a similar direction. The 23-year-old has won 15 of his last 16 Australian Open matches, including 10 without dropping a single set. His recent record on hard court at major tournaments is equally impressive, having won in each of his last 19 matches.
The Italian suffered illness and heat during his fourth-round win over Holger Rune, but returned to his best against eighth-seeded Australian Alex de Minaur, knocking him out of the field and losing only six games in one of the plus ones. facing the quarter-finals we have ever witnessed.
“I feel like the illness is gone now,” Sinner said after reaching the final four. “I felt much, much better. I felt like today was a really great match from me…the best match of the tournament.”
Sinner hits the ball as well as ever and refuses to make mistakes, committing the fewest unforced errors this fortnight of the semi-finalists. He forces his opponents to beat him, and so far, no one is up for the challenge.
His path to the final was also much less intimidating than those on the other side of the draw. Sinner has yet to face a player who has played in a major semi-final and it is possible he could win the title without having to go through a single Grand Slam champion.
Sinner will start as a heavy favorite against Shelton, an opponent he has beaten the last four times they have played, winning nine straight sets. If he passes that test, it will either be Djokovic, the man he beat in last year’s Australian Open semifinals, or Zverev, whom he beat in their only meeting in 2024 in the Cincinnati final. This tournament is Sinner’s to lose.
Alexander Zverev (2)
He may not have won that elusive Grand Slam title, but Zverev has been knocking on the door for almost a decade. The German world No. 2 has made 10 major semi-finals and was a finalist at the US Open in 2020 and the French Open in 2024.
That effort at Roland Garros seven months ago was the culmination of a career-best season for Zverev, in which he won two Masters 1000 titles and totaled 69 victories for the year. He arrived at Melbourne Park in scintillating form and managed to continue his momentum, looking every bit the second best player in the world as he quickly progressed to the final four.
A date with Djokovic at the Australian Open is as tough a tennis mission as it gets, but Zverev knows he can beat him. He has won two of the last four meetings, including a hard-court semifinal victory at the Tokyo Olympics. He is also the fresher of the two, having spent 11 hours and 58 minutes on court, compared to 14 hours and 37 minutes for Djokovic.
And if he is able to prevail over Djokovic, Zverev can be extremely confident knowing that he has a winning head-to-head record against Sinner and Shelton.
There is a feeling that serving will determine how far Zverev can go. This fortnight, Zverev hits a ridiculous 71% of his first serves, by far the best strike rate of the four semi-finalists. He wins 78% of these points.
Against Djokovic, Zverev will have to keep hitting his spots and not allow the greatest returner of all time to force his way into a rally. Djokovic has attacked the second serve in this tournament, winning 60% of the points while his opponent fails to land that first serve.
“I set a goal for myself: to realize my dream of winning a Grand Slam, and I am pursuing this goal,” Zverev said after beating Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals. “I’m doing everything I can to make another (Grand Slam final) on Sunday.”
Novak Djokovic (7)
No one in tennis history knows how to win the Australian Open better than Djokovic. A ten-time champion of the event, Djokovic has only been beaten at Melbourne Park five times in the past 15 years. He also holds a worrying 20-1 record in Australian Open semifinals and finals.
Even though he hasn’t won a Grand Slam trophy in 2024, Djokovic continues to prove that at age 37, he can still beat anyone on tour, any day. Two of his most impressive victories came against world number 3 Carlos Alcaraz, first to win gold at the Paris Olympics last year and then again on Tuesday in an epic quarter-final of the ‘Australian Open.
It was during this last match that Djokovic injured his leg. He left the court and took a medical timeout at the end of the first set against Alcaraz, returning with a left thigh strain and appearing unable to move with his usual freedom.
Should we be worried? Well, yes and no. It’s certainly not going to help him win the trophy, but he has proven several times in Australia that he can go all the way despite injury. In 2021, Djokovic tore a muscle in his abdomen. Then, in 2023, he suffered a 3 cm (1.18 inch) torn hamstring. Neither injury could derail his title hopes.
“I’ll take it day by day. It’s really about my recovery. The extra day without a match comes at a good time,” Djokovic said after defeating Alcaraz. “If I can be good enough physically, I think mentally and emotionally I’m as motivated as I can be.”
An 11th victory in Australia would give Djokovic a 25th major title, breaking the tie he currently holds with Margaret Court for the most Grand Slam singles titles. And at the age of 37 years, 8 months and three days, on January 26, he would also become the oldest man to win a major title.
Ben Shelton (21)
In many ways, Shelton will be playing with house money when he faces Sinner on Friday afternoon. All the attention will be on his opponent, the defending champion, and the two men contesting the other semi-final match, meaning he will face far less pressure and expectations than when he reached this same stage at the US Open in 2023. . Don’t underestimate how important this can be.
Despite a relatively disappointing showing at last year’s major tournaments, Shelton is a much improved and much more experienced player at the Flushing Meadows tournament 18 months ago.
The 22-year-old American won in Houston, was runner-up in Basel and picked up two wins over top-10 players Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev in the second half of the 2024 season, pushing his ranking back into the top. 20. He hits the ball harder, makes fewer mistakes and plays with extreme confidence.
“I win in different ways, for sure,” Shelton said after his quarterfinal triumph over Lorenzo Sonego. “When I was playing here in 2023, at the 2023 US Open, I felt like everything had to be perfect. I was on the red line. I was at my limits. Lately, especially in the matches here, Not everything was perfect. I had to take over for everything related to my game.
“For me, it’s growth. I’ve worked every day to become a more complete player. If you only have one thing to count on, you know, misfires or the chamber is empty , you are in worry.”
In every game at Melbourne Park this fortnight, Shelton has been tested. In each, he continues to succeed with flying colors.
Shelton’s greatest weapon is his serve. He recorded the fastest time of the tournament at 232 km/h (144.2 mph), was broken only six times in 98 service games, hit 66% of his first serves and won 79% of those points. . More often than not, his service games end in the blink of an eye.
Tipsters will suggest Shelton is the least likely of the final four to win the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup on Sunday night, but discount him at your peril.
