Why are Russia and Belarus spared? – DW – 04/05/2025

Donald Trump announced new punitive reciprocal rates on 185 countries around the world on Thursday. Russia and its Bélarus ally are visibly among the few countries that are exempt from the American president’s list. Ukraine, however, is not.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that existing sanctions meant that there was no trade with Russia anyway. After the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the United States and other countries, in particular those in Europe, have already increased the sanctions in progress against Russia. The White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stressed that American sanctions in collaboration with the war in Ukraine would prevent “any significant trade” with Russia. But is it really true?

Russian strategic products

According to the United States Census Bureau, trade with Russia has dropped considerably since it started its large -scale invasion of Ukraine: about 36 billion dollars (32.9 billion euros) in 2021 to around $ 3.5 billion (3.2 billion euros) in 2024.

Bessnte’s assertion that there is no trade with Russia therefore does not reflect reality that imports of the country, as reduced, can be important for the United States, especially because it involves strategic goods such as fertilizers and inorganic chemicals.

Even if trade with Russia is now a tenth of the previous levels, its omission of the new Trump prices cannot be explained by existing sanctions and the decline in import figures.

In comparison, Washington imposes prices of 27% on imports from Kazakhstan, although the volume of commerce with the United States is equivalent to that of Russia: around $ 3.4 billion (3.1 billion euros), including 2.3 billion dollars (2.1 billion euros) are American imports. The volume of commerce with Ukraine is even lower at 2.9 billion dollars (2.6 billion euros), including $ 1.2 billion (1.1 billion euros). However, Ukraine is on Trump’s list for a punitive price of 10%.

“ The mercy of a symbolic nature ”

Although a certain number of sanctioned countries such as Venezuela are also on the list of Trump prices, others subject to sanctions, notably Russia, North Korea, Cuba and Belarus, remain exempt from new measures.

“It looks like the leniency of a symbolic nature,” the political scientist and expert in American studies, Alexandra Filippenko told DW.

The United States has not published any trade on trade with North Korea, Cuba and Bélarus. But according to the United Nations estimates, the bilateral trade between the United States and the Belarus, for example, represents several tens of millions of dollars per year. In 2024, for example, Belarusian goods worth $ 21 million (19.1 million euros) were imported into the United States.

The list of prices therefore does not seem to be based exclusively on the commercial volume of a country. Even tiny or uninhabited territories such as the Heard and McDonald Islands – distant Australian territories in the Southern Indian Ocean without any relevance for American trade – are affected by the measures.

Canada and Mexico are also absent from the new list, although most goods imported from the two countries are already subject to existing 25%prices.

Why is Russia exempt?

Politicologist Alexandra Filippenko considers Trump’s decision to exclude Russia from the list of prices as a clear indication that improving relations with Moscow is a priority for him. “The Russian authorities have understood the political signal,” she said, referring to a telegram post by the special envoy of the Russian president, Kirill Dmitriev, who is currently in Washington. In this document, Dmitriev declared that the restoration of the dialogue between Russia and the United States is a “difficult and progressive process” but that “each meeting, each frank conversation allows us to move forward”.

Nina Khrushcheva, professor of international affairs at the new New York school, also considers diplomacy between the two countries as a possible reason for Trump to refrain from imposing prices on Russia. “I think that political pressure will be exerted on Russia in one way or another, but during the visit of Dmitriev, the prices are rather counterproductive,” she told DW. The Trump administration could impose prices on Russia later if he wanted, added Khrushcheva.

Oleg Buklemishev, director of the Center for Economic Policy Research of the Moscow State University, on the other hand, considers Trump’s decisions on Russia and Ukraine as “devoid of economic logic”.

He also considers the decision not to impose additional prices on Russia as purely political, despite Washington’s assertions that bilateral trade is insignificant. Russian nuclear fuels, fertilizers and platinum metals all continue to be provided in the United States, and high prices on them could cause higher energy costs, which are not in Trump’s plans, said Buklemishev.

At the same time, he stressed that the current commercial volume with Russia, by far decreased in its previous level, compared or the European or Chinese market.

A return to a more robust trade between Russia and the United States would also be unrealistic, said Buklemishev. “Even if relations were to facilitate, it would be impossible to return to the previous level. Financial, logistical and sanctions restrictions will remain in place, and China has already partially resumed the Russian market.”

This article was initially written in German.