Wholesale turkey prices skyrocket as Thanksgiving approaches. Here’s what’s behind this surge.

Turkeys aren’t known for flying, but their prices skyrocket as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches.

A September outlook report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that wholesale prices for frozen turkeys will be $1.32 per pound this year, a 40% increase from the 2024 average of $0.94 per pound.

The wholesale price is what retailers pay to buy items in bulk. Retailers then decide how much they want to charge consumers.

The reason birds — traditionally the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving table — are becoming more expensive is because of sourcing. The number of turkeys available has declined in recent years due to a slight slowdown in demand and outbreaks of avian flu, according to USDA data.

More than 3 million turkeys have been affected by avian flu outbreaks this year, including more than half a million this month alone, according to USDA data.

That translates to fewer turkeys: The USDA projects that farmers will raise about 195 million turkeys in 2025, compared to 200 million in 2024, a 3% decrease. Certainly, the number of turkeys available has declined over the past decade. In 2016, farmers raised about 245 million turkeys, about 50 million more than the current supply.

Offers abound

Faced with rising wholesale turkey prices, several companies are offering deals to try to win over budget-conscious customers.

Walmart announced Tuesday that it will offer Butterball turkeys this year for $0.97 per pound. The retailer also said its meal deal for 10 people will cost less than $4 per person. The grocery chain Aldi offered a similar deal, at $40 for 10 people.

“Retailers typically use turkeys as a loss leader,” David Ortega, a professor and food economist at Michigan State University, told CBS News. “That is, they offer them very competitive prices – sometimes even below cost – to attract buyers to the stores before Thanksgiving.”

Both deals represent a decrease in the average cost of a Thanksgiving meal from 2024, which was $58 for 10 people, according to a report from the American Farm Bureau Federation. That year, frozen turkeys made up a significant portion of Americans’ holiday grocery bill, with an average retail price of $25 for a 16-pound bird.

Despite the surge in wholesale turkey prices in 2025, Bernt Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, doesn’t expect a big increase in consumer prices.

“We’re seeing a wholesale price increase of about 40% right now, so we’ll definitely see some price increases there, but I don’t think they’re going to go much higher than where they are,” he said on a Farm Bureau podcast.

“Higher wholesale prices for turkeys will likely result in somewhat higher prices at the grocery store, but the increase consumers see will likely be less than what happens up front,” Ortega said.

More good news for buyers, CBS News’ price tracking shows that prices for Thanksgiving dinner ingredients like butter, milk and potatoes haven’t moved much compared to prices this time last year.

Edited by Anne Marie D. Lee