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Who will control the Senate in 2022?  Four states to watch.


The days of an evenly divided Senate may be over after the midterm elections, with Democrats and Republicans each vying for just one more seat to break the tie.

The Senate map suggests 2022 could be a tough year for Republicans. They must defend 21 of the 35 places in November. Two of those the races are in the states president donald Trump lost in 2020: Wisconsin, where Sen. Ron Johnson is vulnerable to a Democratic challenge, and Pennsylvania, where the retirement of Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R) leaves a race wide open. The Democrats, meanwhile, have just 14 incumbents to defend, all in states that President Biden has won.

But worries about inflation and falling Biden jobs approval ratings have led Republicans to believe they can win in some states that would otherwise lean toward the Democrats. And for that reason, strategists from both parties unanimously agree that the balance of the Senate could be determined in four states where Democratic incumbents are up for re-election: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire.


Two seats higher

for the election

Any loss or gain of seats can change the slim Democratic majority in the Senate.

Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

Who will control the Senate in 2022?  Four states to watch.

Two seats higher

for the election

Any loss or gain of seats can change the slim Democratic majority in the Senate.

Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

Who will control the Senate in 2022?  Four states to watch.

Two seats higher

for the election

36 Dem. not in elections

29 representatives not eligible

Any loss or gain of seats can change the slim Democratic majority in the Senate.

Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

Georgia

A a particularly competitive race looms in Georgia, where Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D) is likely to face former University of Georgia and National Football League running back Herschel Walker, the GOP primary favorite . Warnock never really stopped campaigning after surprisingly winning a run-off in January 2021, aggressively fundraising to build a narcotic $25.6 million in cash at the end of March. Walker has high profile, but has not been tested as a candidate and faces domestic abuse allegations. Polls show the two men tied in hypothetical matchups.

Arizona

Arizona is in the spotlight again as Sen. Mark Kelly (D) hopes to win his first full term in the Senate. Kelly has relatively high work endorsement and built his own campaign operation that many credit with helping Biden lead the state in 2020. But the race remains competitive, even after Republicans failed to recruit relatively popular Gov. Doug Ducey to run. With voters give Democrats low marks on economy and immigration, two definitions problems for Arizonans, whoever the Republicans name from a wide range of prospects will certainly pose a daunting challenge for Kelly.

New Hampshire

Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu decided not to challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). Republicans viewed Sununu, a moderate popular with voters in the state, as the ideal candidate to overthrow the seat. Hassan won by just over 1,000 votes in 2016 – and in a year that has been trending in Republican favor so far, she will be vulnerable come November.

Nevada

Of the four competitive races with Democratic incumbents, Republicans are the most optimistic about Nevada. The GOP has hammered Democrats for extending coronavirus restrictions that hurt Las Vegas’ tourism-based economy. Nevada also has a growing number of Latino and Asian voters, two groups that have shown more openness toward Republican candidates than other minority groups.

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has more cash on hand than her likely Republican opponent, former state attorney general Adam Laxalt, who enjoys Trump’s endorsement. To win Trump’s support, Laxalt repeated the former president’s false claim that the 2020 election was rigged and anti-voter fraud campaigns, which could discourage more moderate voters.

Wisconsin

The most vulnerable Republican incumbent is Johnson, whose jobs approval ratings are lower than Biden’s. Democrats express considerable confidence that they could unseat Johnson and indict him prioritized Trump over his own constituents. However, Johnson proved that he can prevail in the tough races, winner re-elected in 2016 by nearly 100,000 votes after some counted him out.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, a state that has quickly become a battleground over the years, Toomey’s retirement has created an open race. Democrats are banking on a Trump-aligned Republican nominee to turn off independent voters in the state. Trump endorsed TV host Mehmet Oz over former covering executive David McCormick in the Republican primary. Both candidates have spent millions and sought to win over Trump voters. the The hard-fought May 17 primary was too close to be called, with Oz maintaining a slim lead as thousands of mail-in ballots still had to be counted. Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who has strong backing among working-class voters.

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