A few days before the closest elections South Africa has held since the dawn of democracy thirty years ago, John Steenhuisen took the stage and vowed to save South Africa from its current government.
The final election rally of the Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa’s largest opposition party, was like the party itself: shrewd, well-organized and aggressive.
The 48-year-old leader told thousands of blue-clad supporters at a Johannesburg stadium on Sunday that the African National Congress (ANC) had brought decades of unemployment, corruption and mismanagement.
But help is coming, he told the multiracial crowd: “On Wednesday, we close the chapter on ANC rule. »
This week’s elections are set to mark a turning point in South Africa’s post-apartheid history.
The ANC, Nelson Mandela’s party, has been in power since 1994. But this week it is expected to fail for the first time to obtain the 50 percent of votes needed to govern alone. A new era of coalitions is dawning.
Gloomy levels of unemployment and crime, crumbling public services, broken promises and stains of corruption have all turned voters away from incumbent candidates.
Facing such a tired and corrupt opponent, the DA, which has a reputation for hard-hitting, business-friendly policy and competent administration at the local level, should have a golden opportunity.
Since 2009, the party has ruled the Western Cape province – the only province not held by the ANC and the only one to have received a clean bill of health from the Auditor General.
Public services in the Western Cape are relatively well managed. The economy creates jobs and attracts investment.
It’s a far cry from other provinces, said Nomawethu Somgoyo, 59, a DA voter from the Eastern Cape.
“It’s terrible there, where I come from,” she said. “No water sometimes for a month, therefore no hygiene.
“People are hungry there. They have no life. That’s what a vote for the ANC gives you back home.
Ms Somgoyo said she did not understand why more people were not choosing to support the DA in Johannesburg. “They are not lying to us,” she added.
Despite this support, and although the party has long been the country’s second largest party, polls show that it has struggled to capitalize on disillusionment with the ANC.
Its projected vote percentage hovers stubbornly around the mid-25s, while the ANC is expected to reach around the mid-40s.
Observers say the DA’s struggle to win wider popular support is not surprising. Thirty years after the end of apartheid, politics, like much else in South Africa, is still viewed through the prism of race.
The DA has struggled to shed its reputation as the party of the affluent white minority, in a country where white governments once repressed the black majority.
“The DA has very competent politicians, there is no doubt about it,” says a European diplomat.
“But I just doubt South Africa can elect someone white to lead the country at the moment.”
The DA has long been accused of promoting the interests of whites, Asians and mixed-race people, in a country where these three groups together make up only 18% of the population. Black Africans make up more than 81 percent of the population.
The party has its roots in the main white anti-apartheid party. Its leaders and top executives are largely white, although most of its supporters are black.
“Race is the main problem of the Democratic Alliance,” says Max du Preez, a newspaper editor and political analyst.
“There are not enough black leaders in its highest ranks, and race in South Africa really matters given the long and terrible history of apartheid.”
“If governance record were the only consideration in how you should vote, the DA should get a two-thirds majority and the ANC should get nothing. But that’s not how it works.
“It’s about symbolism, history and remembrance of massive inequalities in society. I would love to have a DA government, but it’s not possible.
The prosecutor denies having a race problem. “People are looking beyond the race to competence, (the) ability to get things done and to be able to keep their promises – that’s the game in town and it will be the case in the next election” , said Mr. Steenhuisen.
The difficulty of conducting accurate opinion polls in South Africa means that election predictions have varied throughout the campaign. But the latest figures appear to show that the ANC will actually get less than 50 percent of the vote.
The shape of any coalition will depend on how far the party travels below the threshold. In the mid-1940s, he might be able to cross the finish line by joining forces with a few small parties. Below this threshold, it will have to seek a larger partner – and make greater concessions.
To broaden its appeal, the DA has formed its own coalition of smaller parties to bring down the ANC, although it is unclear whether the deal will hold if the ANC starts trying to poach partners.
Although Mr Steenhuisen says the ANC must go, he does not rule out a post-election deal with the party, if that is what it takes to keep the Marxist fighters for economic freedom and uMkhonto we going Sizwe of former president Jacob Zuma out of government.
“I’m not ruling anything out based on the election results,” he said earlier this year.
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