Washington
Cnn
–
At the end of the week, it will be much clearer to see how the American economy resists the political changes of President Donald Trump.
Trump’s erratic trade war has already unstable consumers And has wreaked havoc on economic growth – Mainly due to American companies rushing to fill up on imports. And its “large and beautiful” tax invoice which is currently traveling through the congress, which should considerably expand the country’s deficit, disrupted the bond market.
But what matters to the underlying health of the broader economy is whether demand – for goods, services and houses – continues to manage or fall from a cliff in the face of persistent uncertainty, an increase in loan costs and more Price.
New data scheduled for this week should give Wall Street and the Federal Reserve a better sense of benefits that take place in Trump policies, including two new consumption surveys, a revised economic growth estimate in the first quarter and new figures on consumer spending. Market observers will also get clues to what all of this means for the Fed, several officials who should make public comments throughout the week.
Last week, Trump rekindled trade tensions by threatening A 50% rate on the European Union And A 25% function on Apple and other smartphones manufacturers Like Samsung. (He delayed EU prices on Sunday.) The House of Representatives of the United States Trump’s tax bill adoptedShipping to the Senate, which should make some modifications.
Fresh and fresh hard data
This week’s fresh figures will show how Americans recently felt, called flexible data, and how consumers and companies spend, called difficult data.
On Tuesday, the board of directors publishes its consumer survey for May, a closely viewed measure of people’s attitudes towards the economy. In April, consumer confidence Tumbled 7.9 points to a reading of 86Said the business group, the lowest level since May 2020. Economists interviewed by the FOTSET Project data firm The confidence of consumers for having improved slightly this month.
Friday later, the University of Michigan published a revised version of its consumer survey for May. A preliminary reading published earlier this month showed that consumers’ feeling had flowed in May at the second lowest level of recordings dating back to 1952.
Thursday, the Commerce Department publishes its second estimate of the gross domestic product, the widest measure of economic production, for the first quarter. An initial estimate has shown that GDP has decreased at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first three months of the year, the worst quarter since 2022, pulled by a higher trade deficit while the Americans rushed to beat Trump’s prices.
Friday, the ministry also publishes April data on household expenditure, income and the FED preferred inflation gauge. In March, consumer expenditure has skyrocketed 0.7% while the Americans advanced their purchases, especially the cars, to avoid the shock of the Trump prices stickers.
High and constantly high mortgage rates, concerns concerning the economy, volatility of financial markets and the prices of houses that continue to climb combined the prospects of the American housing market.
This led to a Both disappointing the spring shop season at home so far. New data this week show if buyers will be even more in a hurry.
Tuesday, S&P Global publishes its national price index of national cases of case of Corelogic S&P for March. Home price growth in February continued to climb, increasing at an annual rate of 3.9%, while shortages of persistent housing continued to increase prices.
Thursday, the National Association of Realtors reports sales of houses on the basis of contract signatures in April. Pending sales of houses, he jumped 6.1% in March compared to the previous month, the strongest monthly gain since December 2023, which, according to Lawrence Yun, said that the chief economist of NAR, Lawrence Yun, was “fueled by continuous employment growth”.
The same day, Freddie Mac reports the average rate of a fixed mortgage at 30 years standard in the week ending on May 29. is concerned about what Trump’s tax bill means for national debt.
The request for bonds dropped last week, which fell for prices and sent up yields up. The yield on the US Treasury ticket at 10 years, which largely influences mortgage rates, exceeded 4.61% last week, because the 30 years overshadowed 5.14%, its highest level since October 2023.
Market observers regularly behave on the latest public comments from Fed officials and minutes of their last political meeting, because they give an idea of what to expect for interest rates in the coming months.
Until now, Fed officials have reported in their recent speeches that they prefer to bear Pat when they are waiting for greater clarity on Trump’s policies and how the American economy reacts to the massive changes in the administration. The resilience of the labor market has also allowed the Fed to remain pending, as this means that the central bank does not need to provide urgent relief thanks to a drop in rate.
Here are some of the notable federal events of this week:
Tuesday: The president of the Fed of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, speaks of a panel organized by the conference of the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies; The president of the New York Fed, John Williams, participates in a moderate discussion organized by the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference.
Wednesday: The Fed comes out a few minutes from its May political meeting.
THURSDAY: The president of the Fed of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, was interviewed at the Mackinac 2025 political conference; The governor of the Fed, Adriana Kugler, presents opening remarks during the annual Macro-Financing workshop of the Federal Reserve Board; The president of San Francisco Fed, Mary Daly, participates in a cat by the fire organized by the Oakland Rotary Club.
Friday: The president of the Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, pronounces opening remarks for the national challenge of economics of the Council for Economic Education in 2025; Chicago president Fed, Austan Goolsbee, is interviewed “The Interview Show with Mark Bazer”.
