While the Russian army loses its grip in Syria, the United States considers to draw its troops

• The United States has 2,000 soldiers in Syria supporting the Kurdish forces to contain Islamic State activists.
• The Trump administrator weighs these forces withdrawn, and the Russian army loses its access.
• “Russia is now hanging on its fingers,” said an expert in Syria in BI.

Syria has been one of the most complex indicator battles in the world since its civil war broke out in 2011, but which holds power and where it is now quickly.

The biggest change came from the spectacular reversal of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December. He was hunted by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, who are not friends of Russia or Iran.

HTS holds an Aleppo territory in the northwest in Damascus, the seat of the Assad regime. But Syria remains fractured by competing armies. The Turkish and militant forces, it supports the pockets near its northern border. The Syrian-Syrian-Syrian-Syrian democratic forces occupy the large triangle in northeast Syria, an area that has oil fields and prison camps that hold Islamic state fighters. Russia reduces its military imprint while Israel has new positions near the Golan Heights. But the last question mark is the United States.

The United States has 2,000 soldiers in Syria supporting the Kurds led by Kurds to contain the Islamic State. It also controls the base of Al-Tanf strategically located in southern Syria. But the longevity of these deployments is not clear. The Ministry of Defense would have written emergency plans to withdraw all the troops if President Donald Trump is.

“Currently, the government led by HTS seeks to create the conditions for an American withdrawal from the country which would undermine the SDF coalition, which represents an obstacle to the ability of the regime emerging to control the whole country,” said Nicholas Heras, Senior Director Strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, Business Insider told Business.

American forces in Syria saved the oil fields and help the homeless in strikes to overcome the remains of the Islamic State. These forces are a potential lever effect that Trump risks losing if he withdraws them before speaking with the new government under the acting president Ahmed Al-Sharaa.

“It seems likely that the Trump administration will keep the troops in Syria in the short term and will speak of a policy step by step of descending sanctions based on the will of President Sharaa to develop a constitution and to head towards a representative government which Do not threaten his neighbors, “Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Studies in the Middle East and Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Persian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Bi.

The easier chip in negotiation could be the American al-Tanf base in the southern Syria desert. Controlled by the anti-Isis free army group, the base is located near the Jordanian border and the important road in Baghdad-Damascus. The United States applied a 34-thousand deconflict area around Al-Tanf that the forces supported by Iran and the Assad regime were not allowed to access.

“The American presence in Al-Tanf was quite doubtful before Assad fell and it is useless now to perception, except perhaps as a lever towards the new government of Damascus,” said Aron Lund , Analyst of the Middle East with the Swedish Defense The Research Agency and Colleague with Century International, told BI. “So Al-Tanf could be a place where they will withdraw first, perhaps after obtaining a small thing in return from the Sharaa government.”

SDF controlled regions have a “thorny problem” with much higher issues. The Kurds keep prisons with thousands of fighters from the Islamic State, but they would find it difficult to maintain these confronted with a major offensive of a rival. Although HTS did not attack the homeless, the militias supported by the Turks have done so several times since the end of 2024.

“There are real political risks involved, linked to a renewal of the Islamic State and the fate of the Kurdish groups in this area,” said Lund. “Even Trump could perhaps be convinced that these things deserve to be negotiated, if only to limit the benefits before retiring.”

Israel expanded its presence along the heights of Golan while the Assad regime collapsed, striking Mount Hermon. Satellite images show that it builds bases there.

“Israel does not trust the government led by HTS and the Israeli posture suggests that Jerusalem could play an important role in Syrian affairs for the coming years,” said Heras.

The external power that is most to be won is Turkey. Before his recent visit to Türkiye, reports indicate that Sharaa would discuss Turkey, which has potentially established bases in the Syria central desert region.

“Turkey already has an operational military presence in the northwest of Syria, and it is unlikely that it will remove its forces from the country in the near future,” said Heras. “The government led by HTS wants to take advantage of Turkey to have a boss state to support the development of its security forces.”

Russia, however, should lose the most. Syria has canceled a contract from the Assad era with Russia to manage the Tartus naval base, but the Minister of Defense of Syria also said that he could allow Russia to keep this port and the Hmeimim air base “If we get advantages for Syria”.

“Russia now hangs on to its fingers, but we will see how it goes,” said Lund. “In five years, they could still have tartus, perhaps also Hmeimim.”

Moscow has access to Tartus since 1971. Today, these bases are essential to support Russian military and mercenaries through the Middle East and Africa.

“The new Syrian government is obviously not a friend of the Russians. He must be aware of the opinions of his political base, which is made up of ex-rebelles factions that hate Putin almost as much as they hate Assad,” said Lund. He noted that Russia always had an “important lever effect” on Syria. The reconstruction of the Syrian army without Russian weapons could be difficult, even if Syria aims to ask Turkey to replace the traditional role of Russia as the main provider of weapons.

“There are so many Soviet and Russian equipment and inherited training, you can’t just throw it all,” said Lund.

The new leaders of Syria have little to fear from Russia since the time of Russia, tirelessly bombing Idlib of HTS in support of Assad.

“The Russian bases are there at their mercy, and they seem quite harmless to the new government,” said Lund.

“Let them stay could even provide a lever point.”

Paul Iddon is an independent journalist and columnist who writes about developments, military affairs, politics and history of the Middle East. His articles appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.