Kyiv, Ukraine (AP) – Since Discussions on the United States began In March, Ukraine’s strategy was to convince the Trump administration that Vladimir Putin is not reliable and that kyiv is serious about peace.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy A few options, analysts and officials say, but to attract the anger of American president Donald Trump against Putin while depending on the United States and the faithful support for European allies.
In the last roundZelenskyy not only accepted Putin’s offer to hold direct talks in Turkey after the United States approved the idea, but have raised the issues and Defined the Russian Face to Face Chief. The gesture failed to move Putin and the Istanbul talks were demoted on Friday to a technical meeting which did not give substantial results by finishing the war.
The United States has expressed its frustration in the face of died talks and threatened to withdraw if the results are not obtained. Trump told journalists on Friday after embarking on Air Force One to return to Washington by Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, which He can call Putin soon.
“He and I will meet, and I think we are going to resolve it, or maybe not,” said Trump. “At least we will know. And if we do not solve it, it will be very interesting. ”
Throughout, Zelenskyy’s message, led by the Trump administration, was: the Russian chief cannot trust.
It is a rhetorical game of Pingpong in which kyiv and Moscow try to overcome the others vis-à-vis the United States, but political theaters are underlined by Realities struck in the field. In this war of attrition against the invasion of Russia, the position of Ukraine is ready to weaken over time, unless powerful sanctions are imposed against Moscow and that the United States continues the deliveries of arms.
“He is in a difficult situation because behind him is a whole nation of people who suffer,” said Oleksandr Merezkho, legislator of the Zelenskyy party. “We play (long), we try to do everything we can because we do not want to lose the support of the United States, we do not want to be accused that it was our fault.”
Putin’s non-presentation did not lead to a strong reaction from Trump, who frustrated Ukrainian officials.
“He looks surreal, weird when Ukraine complies with everything that is required, and Putin ignores,” said Merezhko. “He looks very unbalanced, he looks unfair to Ukraine.”
Ukraine hopes for sanctions, while Russia stals
Since March, Zelenskyy has wanted to show Ukraine’s desire to acquiesce American requests to avoid alienating Trump, his most powerful ally.
Kyiv hoped that Russia’s reluctance to do the same, over time, would cause the United States to trigger powerful sanctions and paralyze the Moscow war machine – the most likely scenario in which Ukraine can hope to weaken Russia and negotiate an advantageous peace agreement, analysts said.
The position of Russia has remained mainly consistent. The Kremlin continued to repeat that he was ready for peace talks with Ukraine – while making politically untenable requests for Zelenskyy, and would force Ukraine to make territorial concessions, to neutralize his army and to vow never to join NATO.
Throughout the war, Moscow also accused kyiv and its Western allies of seeking to extend the fights and peace efforts.
More recently, the Kremlin has pushed a cease-fire offered by 30 days, thwarting with two unilateral shorts, then accused Ukraine of not prevented the fights, of painting it as little willing to silence the weapons. At the same time, Russian officials point out that efforts to resolve the conflict are complex.
“We understand that Washington wants to succeed quickly in this process, but at the same time, we hope that there is an understanding that the regulations of the Ukrainian crisis are too complicated, there are many questions and details which must be addressed before the settlement,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, journalists last month.
Ukraine requests an unconditional temporary cease-fire, during which future diplomatic talks can take shape. Zelenskyy also asked for a gesture of confidence construction, such as the release of prisoners of war, which the two parties accepted on Friday. The exchange of 1,000 prisoners would be Their greatest exchange to date.
But Ukraine also maintained flexibility in its negotiation position by accepting Trump’s proposals to avoid alienating the American president.
“They are desperate to keep the Americans on their side,” said Balazs Jarabik, a specialized analyst in Eastern Europe and Ukraine.
In March, Kyiv accepted the American proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefireWho Putin actually rejected by imposing impossible conditions impossible for Ukraine. In April, Kyiv signed an agreement of historic minerals sought by Trump after months of difficult negotiations and a brief break of military aid.
This is why agreeing to send a delegation to Istanbul, after Trump supported the idea, was a risky decision for Zelenskyy. He played in Putin’s goal of drawing kyiv in talks that had been blocked for the first weeks of the invasion of Moscow in 2022.
“We have shown that we are for peace negotiations and support Trump’s plan,” said Mykola Davydiuk, Ukrainian political scientist. “Now the ball is with Trump.”
Despite the verbal threats of Europe and the United States, the sanctions of the genre that could devastate the energy sector of Russia were not to come.
Zelenskyy expressed his support for a set of sanctions pushed to the American Congress by the Republican Senator Lindsay Graham who could impose 500% prices on Russian energy imports. Graham said he had enough support to the Chamber to bring the sanctions bill.
Russia is probably preparing for the summer combat campaign
For the moment, Zelenskyy has few options, but to continue to highlight Putin’s word to engage in significant discussions and keep the United States engaged.
“If it turns out that the Russian delegation is really theatrical and cannot give any results today, the world must react,” the Ukrainian leader said on Friday at a European summit in Albania. “There must be a strong reaction, including sanctions against the energy sector and the banks of Russia. The pressure must continue to increase until real progress is made. ”
For Ukrainian soldiers who fight along the front line of 1,000 kilometers (600 miles), the theatricality of the political developments of the week was in severe contrast to the crushing war.
“Better to call him a circus,” said a Ukrainian drone operator from the 68th brigade who, like other soldiers, only gave his call for the goose in accordance with the military protocol.
Analysts say Russia is at a crucial crossroads of war, where it can negotiate a truce and consolidate the gains, or launch a summer military campaign to maximize victories before the start of winter.
Ukraine has always been disadvantaged and faces shortages of labor and ammunition. Analysts have offered estimates from six months to two years for how long it can hang on.
Many will depend on the type of support that Ukraine receives from partners and the speed with which the country can increase the production of interior weapons.
Russian forces recently intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, according to Ukraine spokesperson in the South Defense forces. The soldiers said that Russia was clearly aimed at reaching the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, to be able to claim the capture of two partially occupied territories out of four.
“The feeling is that we will hold either and allow the country’s political leaders to freeze the conflict along the contact line, or the enemy unravel,” said a Ukrainian soldier with the Corsair Denis call in the Sumy region.
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The writer Associated Press Dasha Litvinova in Tallinn, Estonia, contributed to this report.
