A big domino fell this weekend when Penn State fired James Franklin despite a huge buyout, creating another Power 4 coaching vacancy. There could be many more on the horizon.
It’s time to check the midseason temperature on all FBS.
Two years ago his team was great and got robbed by the selection committee and was left out of the College Football Playoff at 13-0. Last year the Seminoles had a terrible roster and finished 2-10. A fast start to 2025 with an impressive win over No. 8 Alabama has raised hopes. But they lost three in a row to Virginia, Miami and Pitt – all by one score – and talk of getting rid of Norvell returned.
His buyout figure is huge, north of $50 million, and FSU doesn’t have the resources of Penn State or Texas A&M. There are no ranked teams on the schedule either, although a road trip to a Clemson team that seems to have started to figure some things out is daunting. Getting to 7-5 doesn’t seem too difficult, as neither opponent has a conference winning record. Then again, neither did FSU at 0-3.
Temperature control: it’s getting hotter
Things got worse in Madison. After winning the first two games against Group 5 opponents, the Badgers lost four straight games to Alabama, Maryland, Michigan and Iowa by at least two touchdowns. Iowa brutalized the Badgers 37-0 at Camp Randall Stadium after Fickell played the revenge card following last year’s blowout loss to the Hawkeyes. It was their first home shutout loss in 45 years.
After the match, Fickell said, “That’s as low as it gets. I apologize,” adding that he was “stunned.” The Badgers have been outscored 74-7 in the first halves of the last four games. Fickell, who did a great job at Cincinnati, is 15-17 in a program where Paul Chryst was fired after going 67-26 overall and 43-18 in the Big Ten. And it risks getting even uglier. Wisconsin’s next two games are against No. 1 Ohio State and then No. 8 Oregon. They also visit No. 3 Indiana. The combined record of the Badgers’ six remaining opponents is 31-6. His buyout is worth around $28 million. That’s a lot, but it’s hard to see Wisconsin giving it much more time.
Temperature control: Hot to white
After two losing seasons to begin his tenure at Auburn, Freeze has struggled to gain traction and is now on a three-game losing streak, although all three games were close against ranked opponents (Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Georgia). The Tigers could have won all three but didn’t, which was a common theme in the Freeze era.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 2-8 in one-possession games and 1-11 against ranked teams. He is 14-17 overall and 5-14 in the SEC. The good news: the remaining schedule isn’t brutal. Next, the Tigers will host Missouri, which will take its first road trip. Then it’s Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mercer and the Iron Bowl against Alabama. Expecting Auburn to go 4-2 down the stretch seems plausible. A 7-5 season still may not be enough, but beating No. 16 Missouri is now a huge game for Freeze.
Temperature control: Caliente
Auburn is 5-14 in SEC games under Hugh Freeze. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Napier is 21-23 in four years, and it appears he’s been in Florida longer. He had a rough first half of the season last year, but he never lost the team and the Gators responded well, winning their final four games to finish 8-5.
Florida was 3-3 at this point last season with four ranked teams and two dismal ones remaining. The Gators are 2-4 this year, although the schedule isn’t as daunting with three Top 25 teams (Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee). Winning four of six – and I think the Gators are talented enough to do it – might be enough to save it. But … what’s very different now is that athletic director Scott Stricklin’s tenure isn’t as tied to Napier as it was last year, when his situation seemed more precarious before his men’s basketball hire, Todd Golden, won a national title last spring, changing the calculus in Gainesville.
Temperature control: burns
After a 3-9 freshman season, Mason’s team came out of the gate at 1-5 in a conference where half the programs recently joined the FBS. Even worse, Middle Tennessee was eliminated by FCS Austin Peay to start the season. It’s still early in his tenure, but it would behoove him to pick up some wins in the second half of the season. The Blue Raiders will host winless Sam Houston on November 22.
Temperature Control: Warm
It’s been a slow build for the former Texas Tech star quarterback, who went 6-18 in his first two seasons before winning five games last year. He’s off to a good start this year, going 4-1 with a loss at LSU by a respectable score of 23-7. But the Bulldogs just got crushed 35-7 at Kennesaw State and now face WKU, the best team in the league. Getting six wins should be enough, and it seems possible considering they still have winless Sam Houston and 2-4 Liberty, both of whom visit Ruston.
Temperature Control: Cooling
It’s hard work. Moorhead is a very good offensive coach and finished last year strong, but the Zips started 2-5 and he is only 10-33 in four years. They still have UMass and Kent State, who are both dismal, so getting four wins is realistic, but is a Power 4 program trying to hire him as their offensive coordinator? Moorhead’s son, a promising Class of 2026 recruit committed to Jacksonville State, will be attending college, so the time may be right for a change.
Temperature Control: Warm
The Rams picked up a much-deserved victory last week, knocking off Fresno State 49-21 to end a three-game losing streak. They’re 2-4, but now they have a stretch where they’re playing five teams that are .500 or better. Norvell did a very good job, going from three wins to five wins to eight wins last year after taking over following the terrible hiring of Steve Addazio. It would be surprising to see a change after just producing the second-best season Colorado State has had in two decades, but if they don’t maintain some of that momentum from last week, this one is worth watching.
Temperature Control: A little warm
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