Where Patriots’ first-round pick could end up entering Week 18

Typically in years past, if the Patriots entered the final week in control of their own destiny over a clinching scenario, it would be over home-field advantage or a first-round bye. This year, the Patriots enter Week 18 in control of their own destiny over something on the opposite end of the spectrum.

New England has a pretty clear path to officially secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. If the Patriots lose to the Bills on Sunday, they’ll officially be on the clock for April’s draft, unless they opt to trade out of the No. 1 pick before then.

If the Patriots upset the Bills, they could still earn the No. 1 overall pick, but their path to obtaining it would be murky. They would need the Browns, Titans, and Giants all to secure wins in order to receive the top pick.

A pair of those teams might have an easier path to securing a victory this week than they normally would. The Titans host a reeling Texans team that has nothing to play for in Week 18. Even though Houston has indicated it will play its starters in its regular-season finale, Tennessee is a two-point favorite. The Giants, meanwhile, are a 2.5-point underdog at the Eagles on Sunday, as Philadelphia will rest some starters with nothing to play for.

The Browns are the only team of the group that faces a steep path to getting an upset. The Ravens are looking to clinch the AFC North when they host the Browns on Saturday. Baltimore is a whopping 20-point favorite as Cleveland will start Bailey Zappe at quarterback.

As for Sunday’s Patriots game, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is expected to play for just a little bit in order to extend his games started streak. The Patriots have said that quarterback Drake Maye will start, but he’s listed as questionable due to a hand injury. New England has given rookie Joe Milton III reps in practice this week, a possible indicator he could play on Sunday.

The Patriots are 3.5-point underdogs for Saturday’s game. ESPN analytics gave them a 78.1 percent chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick entering Week 18.

Beyond that, the rest of the games on the Week 18 slate won’t play a factor in where the Patriots will pick in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. New England secured the strength of schedule tiebreaker over the teams within a game of it for the top pick last week. So, all the teams with four wins entering Week 18 can’t pass the Patriots in the draft order.

As we know that the Patriots will clinch the No. 1 overall pick with a loss, let’s take a look at where their first-round pick would end up in each scenario (excluding ties) if they win in Week 18.

Patriots win, Titans lose, Browns lose, Giants lose: New England will have No. 4 overall pick; Tennessee will have No. 1 overall pick.

Patriots win, Titans win, Browns lose, Giants lose: New England will have No. 3 overall pick; Cleveland will have No. 1 overall pick.

Patriots win, Titans lose, Browns win, Giants lose: New England will have No. 3 overall pick; Tennessee will have No. 1 overall pick.

Patriots win, Titans lose, Browns lose, Giants win: New England will have No. 3 overall pick; Tennessee will have No. 1 overall pick.

Patriots win, Titans win, Browns win, Giants lose: New England will have No. 2 overall pick; New York will have No. 1 overall pick.

Patriots win, Titans win, Browns lose, Giants win: New England will have No. 2 overall pick; Cleveland will have No. 1 overall pick.

Patriots win, Titans lose, Browns win, Giants win: New England will have No. 2 overall pick; Tennessee will have No. 1 overall pick.

Patriots win, Titans win, Browns win, Giants win: New England will have No. 1 overall pick.