For the past few weeks, the Denver Nuggets have been preparing for the possibility of losing starting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. As the days draw closer to the start of free agency on Sunday, those fears within the organization are turning into acceptance and resignation. The Nuggets know, even if the offer seems competitive, that Caldwell-Pope is likely to leave.
That likelihood came to fruition in the first hour of free agency, when Caldwell-Pope agreed to a three-year deal with the Orlando Magic, making the Magic stronger while weakening the Nuggets. It’s the second straight offseason the Nuggets have lost a key piece of the team that won the 2023 NBA championship.
The Nuggets need to find a way to replace what Caldwell-Pope brought to the roster on and off the court. It won’t be easy in either area.
Below is a list of the challenges the Nuggets face and what they can do next.
Why is this loss so significant?
The Nuggets didn’t become competitive in the league until they started stopping players at the point of attack on defense. And they didn’t become defensive demons until Caldwell-Pope arrived. Defenders like Caldwell-Pope were able to help alleviate Nikola Jokić’s lack of rim protection.
Caldwell-Pope, while one of the best perimeter defenders in all of basketball, also shot 41.5 percent from 3-point range during his two seasons in Denver and has made a habit of making big shots.
He proved to be a good piece of Denver’s offensive scheme as he moved very well without the ball, capitalizing on his opportunities and never taking over the offense while maintaining tremendous chemistry with Jokić and Jamal Murray.
His value in the locker room was almost as great, if not greater. He brought a calm, competitive voice. After winning the 2020 title in the NBA bubble with the Lakers, he brought with him a championship pedigree and often spoke about what it was like to win at the highest level. He was the only player on the Nuggets roster who had experienced a title before 2023. He passed that experience on to his teammates.
Caldwell-Pope has often taken on tough assignments on the perimeter, allowing Murray to not have to put himself through the ringer on defense. He is the definition of a veteran who has worn multiple hats and allowed more famous teammates to flourish, so his presence won’t be easily replaced.
Why did this happen?
The Nuggets made a competitive offer, but the new rules and penalties brought by the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement hurt Denver in this case. Had the Nuggets retained Caldwell-Pope, they likely would have moved into the second tax bracket, which would severely limit how a team can build a roster. Here’s what happens if you’re a team in the second tax bracket:
- No access to any mid-level exceptions in free agency.
- Unable to aggregate contracts into transactions
- Unable to send money in transactions
- You can’t sign and trade your own player
- A first-round pick cannot be traded in seven years, and that pick falls to the bottom of the first round if the team is also above the second apron in two of the next four years.
Denver made a competitive offer to Caldwell-Pope, but when the race is tied, you essentially have a 50-50 chance of losing that race. The Nuggets ended up losing the race. It’s also worth noting that even if Denver had been able to keep Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets would likely be in the same boat next summer with Aaron Gordon.
By losing Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets now have access to the taxpayer’s $5.18 million mid-level exception. They probably won’t find a starter with that kind of money. But they can find a rotation player with it. Which brings us to…
How does Denver replace Caldwell-Pope?
The Nuggets are exploring the trade market and looking to sign players in free agency. Still, if the Nuggets roster remains largely the same, Christian Braun could get a big jump in playing time and responsibility. Elevating Braun to the starting five could be a mixed bag. Braun is bigger and more athletic than Caldwell-Pope. He’s a similar defender, and a tough, competitive player. He’s a much better transition player than Caldwell-Pope.
But he doesn’t have the same shooting ability. He’s also not as good a creator off the dribble and creating rebounds wasn’t Caldwell-Pope’s strong suit.
The question is whether or not the Nuggets give Julian Strawther a chance to start and keep Braun as a sixth man, but play Braun 30+ minutes per game. Strawther is a terrific shooter. The former first-round pick out of Gonzaga is long and rangy for a 6-foot-1 shooting guard. He’s more creative off the dribble than you might think. His presence helps offensively and helps space out the offense.
However, Strawther is not a great defender and he needs to improve.
Peyton Watson should also get a few more minutes, though he’ll likely come off the bench no matter what.
What do the Nuggets need?
Internal development will help the Nuggets here. They need Strawther, Hunter Tyson and Jalen Pickett to return as top players because, with Reggie Jackson traded to Charlotte, the Nuggets are without a backup point guard. The Nuggets will need to find one in the coming days. Denver needs a lead from Braun and Strawther. The Nuggets also need Michael Porter Jr. to continue to improve.
That’s the reality of the new collective bargaining agreement. Teams are going to have to spend smart and make smart choices. It’s getting harder to retain a core of championship-caliber players, and Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth knows it.
Losing Brown last year and Caldwell-Pope now is tough. It puts the onus on the Nuggets to find the best possible fit. Denver is in the midst of a Jokić era and wants to maximize its window of victory. It will take more creativity than ever to do so.
Are the Nuggets ready to do anything to claim the title?
No. Not as long as Jokić is in top shape and Murray can stay healthy. No matter what happens the rest of the offseason, Denver is a prime threat to come out of the Western Conference and win a title. But they’re probably not the best team or the second-best team in the league. They’re not a title favorite, but it would be unfair to take the title contender label off them.
What does this mean? The Dallas Mavericks were contenders coming out of the Western Conference, not favorites. They caught fire and played well at the right time. They faced favorable opponents and reached the NBA Finals. Barring a major improvement in the coming days, this is likely the direction Denver is headed next season. The Nuggets will win 50+ games, assuming they stay healthy. They will earn a good playoff spot. From there, it will be a battle for them.
It’s not an insurmountable place, just a more difficult place to live.
Required Reading
Robbins: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope intends to sign a 3-year, $66 million contract with the Magic
2024 NBA Free Agency: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope tops the list of best available backs
(Photo by Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
News Source : www.nytimes.com
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