Residents and community organizers took to the streets Wednesday to show their support for Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gónzalez Urrutia in the La Vega neighborhood of Caracas, the Venezuelan capital.
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CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuelans are preparing for one of their most important and controversial elections this Sunday, which could bring sweeping changes to the South American nation.
If the main opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, wins and is sworn in in January, it would end 12 years of authoritarian rule under President Nicolás Maduro – and a quarter-century of rule by the Socialist Party founded by former leader Hugo Chávez.
Eight other opposition candidates are also running, but none are above 2% in the polls. Those same polls show González with a considerable lead over Maduro, who has led Venezuela into the worst economic crisis in its history and nearly destroyed its democracy, prompting nearly 8 million Venezuelans to flee the country.
However, Maduro controls all branches of power, including the armed forces and the National Electoral Council that counts votes. His government has flooded the mainstream media, which it controls, with propaganda and embarked on a campaign of sabotage of the opposition.
The most brazen measure was to bar popular opposition leader María Corina Machado from participating in the election. She also imposed a series of onerous conditions on the 5.5 million Venezuelans of voting age living abroad – most of whom oppose Maduro – that will prevent most of them from voting on Sunday.
Even if González, who replaced Machado on the ballot, wins, it is not certain that Maduro will recognize his victory and peacefully leave power.
Here are some key things to understand about the Venezuelan elections.
When are the presidential elections in Venezuela?
The elections will take place on Sunday, with polls opening at 6 a.m. and closing at 6 p.m. The July 28 date falls on the birthday of former President Chavez, who was Maduro’s mentor.
Election officials told NPR they couldn’t say exactly when the results would be released. In past elections, the final vote count was given late at night or even days later.
Who is running for election?
Outgoing President Nicolas Maduro Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seeking a third six-year term. Maduro, 61, was first elected president in 2013 after the death of Chavez, who had ruled Venezuela since 1999 with a pledge to lead a leftist revolution. Under Maduro, Venezuela suffered an economic collapse marked by food shortages, hyperinflation and the collapse of its vital oil industry. That led to massive street protests that prompted a government crackdown that included jailing opposition leaders and censoring the press.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro greets supporters during his closing campaign rally in Caracas on Thursday.
Yuri Cortez/AFP via Getty Images
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Maduro won another term in 2018, in a vote widely seen as a sham. If he wins on Sunday, Maduro has promised to revive the economy now that U.S. sanctions on the country’s oil industry have been eased. He has also warned Venezuelans of chaos if the opposition wins.
“If you don’t want a bloodbath in Venezuela, a civil war provoked by the fascists, then let’s strive to achieve the greatest success, the greatest victory in the electoral history of our people,” he told voters this month.
The main opposition candidate is Edmundo González Urrutia.a 74-year-old grandfather and retired career diplomat. Opposition leaders put his candidacy on the ballot after Machado, who easily won last year’s opposition primary, was disqualified because of unproven corruption charges.
The two men campaigned together and drew huge crowds, with the fiery Machado urging her supporters to vote for her replacement. González served as Venezuela’s ambassador to Algeria and Argentina, but resigned in 2002 to work for the Venezuelan political opposition. He has never held elected office, and before his sudden emergence as Machado’s replacement, he was unknown to most Venezuelans. Yet many rally behind him.
Opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia (right) and party leader María Corina Machado greet supporters in Las Mercedes on Thursday during their closing campaign event.
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“We were a rich country, and it’s not fair that this man (Maduro) brought us this disaster,” María Lagos, an emergency room nurse, told NPR after attending an opposition rally on July 21. “That’s why I’m voting for González.”
González did not specify what he would do as president. But he promised to lead “a government for all” in which Machado would be a key player. “She is a key leader in this process. (…) She will have the role she wants in the government,” he said. The Guardian newspaper.
What will happen if opposition candidate González wins?
The main question ahead of Sunday’s vote is whether, if the opposition wins, Maduro will respect the results and allow a peaceful transition of power. One of the main sticking points is that if Maduro leaves power, he could face criminal prosecution.
The International Criminal Court is investigating allegations of crimes against humanity by the Maduro government, including torture, sexual violence and arbitrary detention. In addition, Maduro and several members of his entourage are accused by the United States of drug trafficking, terrorism and other crimes. Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council think tank, says: “The reality is that Maduro is not going to give up power if he perceives a real risk of ending up in a Miami jail cell.”
Residents and community organizers in Caracas’ La Vega neighborhood are going door-to-door to explain the vote and support opposition candidate Edmundo Gónzalez Urrutia.
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But there may be room for maneuver. Four years ago, the United States dropped drug trafficking charges against a former Mexican defense secretary in order to foster better relations with Mexico. Similarly, the United States could be flexible with Maduro to help facilitate a smooth transition of power.
“There are a lot of little things you could do, report or exchange behind the scenes,” says John Feeley, a former U.S. diplomat in Latin America. “You can say, ‘Yes, you’re a drug trafficker; if you set foot in the United States, we’ll arrest you.’ But you can also send emissaries to say, ‘Here are several countries you could live in.’”
Maduro’s son, a politician also named Nicolás, told the Spanish newspaper The country“If Edmundo wins, we will give up power and become the opposition. That’s all.”
But even if that happens, the new González government could find itself paralyzed because Maduro’s Socialist Party would continue to control all other branches of power.
What will happen if Maduro remains in power?
Polls predict a landslide defeat for Maduro. But if he declares victory and clings to power after the opposition has clearly won, his government could face street protests by disgruntled voters.
“We all have to go out into the streets and defend the opposition’s victory,” says Gabriela Hurtado, a kindergarten teacher. “If we stay home, we’ll have to live like this for another 20 years… and that’s what we don’t want.”
The United States and the European Union are unlikely to recognize an election marred by fraud, which could lead to new sanctions against Venezuelan government officials. Machado, the opposition leader, warns that six more years of Maduro could lead to a new wave of mass emigration.
People attended the closing of President Maduro’s campaign, where stages were set up throughout the city and people were bussed in from different states across the country on July 25.
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The opposition is counting on help from the United States, Europe and the leftist presidents of neighboring Colombia and Brazil to convince Maduro to resign if Gonzalez wins. To protect against fraud in an election in which Maduro has banned most independent election observers, the opposition will try to place observers at every voting table.
“We have to count the votes. That’s our challenge. Everybody knows that Edmundo González is winning by at least 30 points,” Machado told NPR, sitting in the back of an SUV on the way to a campaign rally in western Venezuela on Tuesday. “We’re just hours away from a day that we’ve been waiting 25 years for.”
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