What worked in favor of the India alliance in UP? What led to the upheaval of the BJP? – Firstpost

It seems to be an upheaval. Even with the NDA led by the BJP, ready to win the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, the ruling party seems to undergo the reverse in the Hindi heart, in particular in the Uttar Pradesh.

In the afternoon, a few hours after the counting start, data from the electoral commission showed that the BJP led in 34 seats in the 80 that the state sends to the lower chamber. His ally, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) by Jayant Chaudhry, led in two other seats and Apna Dal in another. Meanwhile, the Samajwadi (SP) party led in 35 years, while the Congress was ahead in seven.

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These trends believe what the exit polls had predicted for the great state of the UP. We are examining more closely what is happening in UP, how different it is from exit surveys and factors that led to this deployment situation.

What has happened so far?

Today, while counting started, all eyes were focused on the Uttar Pradesh to see how the BJP and its allies would get away in the state, which retains the honor of sending most of the deputies to Lok Sabha. In the afternoon, the trends that emerged were a worrying sign for the NDA.

The NDA, made up of BJP, RLD and APNA Dal, was at the top of 39 seats while the Indi alliance composed of SP and Congress led by Akhilesh Yadav – was ahead in 40 seats.

Interestingly, Rahul Gandhi of the Congress led the Rae Bareli seat, just like Akhilesh Yadav from Kannauj. Meanwhile, the Minister of the Union Smriti Irani is lying down with his Amethi seat.

These trends have shocked the NDA and its disciples as well as to many political experts. This is because even the exit polls, including News18‘S, said that the NDA would sweep the state elections, sailing 68-71, while the Alliance India would only win new seats.

What has happened in the past in the past?

Until now, the results are a difference marked compared to what happened in the state in Lok Sabha 2019 and 2014 polls. Five years ago, in 2019, the BJP had won 62 of the 80s State seats. And his ally, the apna dal (Sonnel) had won two others.

In 2019, the BSP remained second with 10 seats while the Samajwadi party achieved a count of five seats, while the congress was held at a lamentable seat. It is important to note that at the time the BSP and the SP were in an alliance of its own.

Of the 62 seats that the BJP won in 2019, the most seats – 23 – for the BJP from the western part of the State. In addition, the Bundelkhand region has also been swept by the BJP, winning the four Lok Sabha seats in Jhansi, Banda, Hamirpur and Jalaun-SC.

And 10 years ago, in 2014, the BJP and its allies won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats.

What could be reasons for the disappointing BJP performance?

There are a number of factors that have influenced the results. Many had predicted that the construction of the Mandir Ram would influence the votes in favor of the BJP. However, this does not seem to be the case. In fact, Faizabad, the original Ram Mandir district, also voted in favor of the SP, with its candidate Awadhesh Prasad leading by a huge margin against the BJP candidate.

In addition, Akhilesh Yadav worked hard to make breakthroughs in the non-Yadav OBC vote. And it is for this very reason, he presented only five candidates from the Yadav community – all of his family – in his 62 seats.

A chief sp has been quoted as said to Indian Express: “The share of the party’s vote increased when it has teamed up with the small parties, which attract the support of non-Yadav OBS. The party welcomed candidates from other communities to contact voters from other OBC groups and upper castes. »»

Interestingly, in an attempt to court more votes, the head of the SP had modified his formula “My” or Muslim-Yadav to “PDA” or “Pichde (backward classes or OBC), dalits, alpasankhyak (minorities)”. He presented 27 candidates from other OBCs, 11 upper caste (including four Brahmans, two Thakurs, two Vahyas and one Khatri) and four Muslims. He appointed 15 Dalit candidates in seats reserved for SC.

According to a NDTV The report, the field “Up Ke Ladke” also seemed to find the favor of the inhabitants of the state. Although the last time, they tried this formula in 2017, an Akhilesh and Rahul more mature seem to have changed the image.

There is also no Mayawati factor at stake. Even as the count progresses, the BSP leads to any seat; This is not good news for Mayawati.

What is even more significant is that, from the siege of Nagina, the chief of Dalit Chandrashekhar Azad leads while the candidate of the BSP finds himself behind in fourth place. A victory for Azad and a big loss for BSP shows that the Dalit voter base has now found new leaders.

With agency entries