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What will the S&P 500 do with the US CPI report? Scenarios.

The JPMorgan Trading Desk presents scenarios for the US stock market, the likely response of the S&P 500 (the implied one-day move), based on what the April CPI m/m reading will be:

If the CPI is below 0.2% m/m, which JPM says represents a 2.5% probability, then the index will gain 2-2.5%

  • between 0.20% to 0.25%, to which JPM assigns a probability of 7.5%, gains of 1.5% to 2%
  • between 0.25% to 0.3%, probability of 10%, gains of 1% to 1.5%
  • between 0.3% and 0.35%, probability 40%, S&P 500 down 0.5% to a 1% gain
  • between 0.35% and 0.4%, probability of 30%, down from 0.5% to 1.25%
  • CPI above 0.4%, probability 10%, down from 1.75% to 2.5%

JPMorgan information via Bloomberg report.

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