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What will the S&P 500 do with the US CPI report? Scenarios.
![What will the S&P 500 do with the US CPI report? Scenarios. What will the S&P 500 do with the US CPI report? Scenarios.](https://i2.wp.com/images.forexlive.com/images/Powell%20frightened%20scared_id_0f40bcc2-7068-4ae7-a8de-3877e7f698b9_size975.jpg?w=975&resize=975,545&ssl=1)
The JPMorgan Trading Desk presents scenarios for the US stock market, the likely response of the S&P 500 (the implied one-day move), based on what the April CPI m/m reading will be:
If the CPI is below 0.2% m/m, which JPM says represents a 2.5% probability, then the index will gain 2-2.5%
- between 0.20% to 0.25%, to which JPM assigns a probability of 7.5%, gains of 1.5% to 2%
- between 0.25% to 0.3%, probability of 10%, gains of 1% to 1.5%
- between 0.3% and 0.35%, probability 40%, S&P 500 down 0.5% to a 1% gain
- between 0.35% and 0.4%, probability of 30%, down from 0.5% to 1.25%
- CPI above 0.4%, probability 10%, down from 1.75% to 2.5%
JPMorgan information via Bloomberg report.
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