What to expect from the Russian-Iranian agreement expected to be signed on January 17

For Moscow, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit to Russia on January 17 is a diplomatic victory.

The centerpiece of the trip will be the finalization of a long-standing partnership agreement between Russia and Iran, signed by Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.

The deal marks the latest chapter in Moscow’s ongoing efforts to seek global allies and acceptance amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Pezeshkian and Putin will use their meeting in Moscow to discuss greater cooperation in trade, transport and logistics, as well as “acute issues of the regional and international agenda”, the Kremlin said on Monday .

But it is the prospect of greater military cooperation between the two countries that worries observers the most.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has already sparked closer ties: Russian troops are using Iranian Shahed-type drones to bomb Ukrainian cities, while Tehran has been accused by the United States of supplying Russia with short-range ballistic missiles. scope. Iranian officials deny the allegations.

The new agreement highlights this growing military exchange.

But it also comes at a time when the balance of power between Russia and Iran has shifted.

Since Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, Moscow has always had the upper hand in negotiations with Tehran. But Russia’s need for weapons and allies gives Iran new leverage in an evolving partnership — one that both sides hope will give them an advantage.

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Art of sanctions-busting

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 left Moscow isolated on the world stage and the target of heavy Western sanctions.

Iran has been a useful example for Russian officials on how to navigate this strange new world.

Having survived its own barrage of sanctions for decades, Iran was also able to serve as a model for Moscow. Iranian officials have for years resorted to basic tactics to circumvent sanctions, such as using a shadow fleet of tankers to transport sanctioned oil. Moscow has been able to adopt such models with great success.

Their own sanctioned status also means Iranian officials are happy to ignore Western bans on Russian trade.

After almost three years of war, equipping Russian troops in Ukraine remains a priority for the Kremlin. Iran’s weapons systems are cheap and easy to manufacture, ideal for a conflict that has seen Moscow’s forces bogged down on the battlefield.

“Iranian weapons systems are not advanced like Western or even Russian weapons systems, but they work, and they work very effectively,” says Sina Azodi, a visiting scholar and lecturer at the Institute of Studies. on the Middle East from George Washington University.

“After Western sanctions against Russia cut off the country’s access to advanced microchips, Russians learned that these simpler weapons systems would work in their favor.”

But Moscow is not alone in its need for military technology. Tehran is also likely to want modern Russian weapons: something that became particularly urgent after Israeli strikes on Iranian air defense installations in October.

“Iran needs a modern air force. Iran needs a modern air defense system,” Azodi says. “Russia is the only country that can – and wants – to provide this to Iran.”

There is, however, no guarantee that once these promises are made, either partner will be able to keep them.

Reports have surfaced repeatedly in recent years about Iran’s alleged purchase of Russian Sukhoi fighter jets – but the planes themselves have not been released, suggesting that such deals are unlikely. were not successful. Although Iran’s increased influence over Moscow could help such acquisitions become a reality, the Kremlin also has other priorities to protect.

“Iran desperately needs to replace its air defense systems destroyed by the Israelis,” Azodi says. “But the question is whether Russia can provide it, given that it needs air defenses for its own war in Ukraine.”

Partners, not allies

There are also other potential points of friction between the two sides. With both Moscow and Tehran under heavy sanctions, the two countries now compete to sell products such as oil on the same gray market. Although Iran has had a longer history of using ghost tankers, ultimately Russia’s economic clout allowed it to undercut its rivals’ prices.

“Russia and Iran have been engaged in a battle to offer discounts to oil buyers in countries like China and India,” says Arman Mahmoudian, a researcher at the Institute for Global and National Security and a member of the faculty at the University of South Florida.

“But some of these reductions are so large that it is very difficult for Iran to beat them.”

There are also ongoing geopolitical disagreements and rivalries.

The fall of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria is a new wound for Iran and Russia: in a recording published in the Iranian media in early January, General Behrouz Esbati, of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, accused Moscow of having failed Tehran by authorizing Israeli strikes on Iranian assets in Syria. He also said the Kremlin misled Iranian officials by claiming to strike rebel forces when in reality it was bombing empty fields.

The struggle between Iranian and Russian influence in the Caucasus remains another sensitive subject.

In September, Iran warned Moscow against siding with Azerbaijan in an ongoing dispute between Baku and neighboring Armenia over the establishment of a land corridor to the Azerbaijani enclave from Nakhichevan.

“Any threat coming from the north, south, east or west against the territorial integrity of our neighbors or the redrawing of borders is totally unacceptable and constitutes a red line for Iran,” he wrote at the time. Iranian Foreign Minister Sayeed Abbas Araghchi on

However, these questions may be put aside as both parties react to changing political tides. For now, the two countries can use their common understanding to fight against a common enemy: the United States.

“Iran views Russia as a powerful partner in forcing the United States out of the Middle East. They see the United States as the main obstacle to expanding their own influence in the region,” Azodi explains. “Russia is obviously a very good partner because they want the same thing.”

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Common foe

The imminent inauguration of US President Donald Trump will be keenly felt in both Moscow and Tehran.

For Iranian officials, President Trump comes with a sense of worry. Trump has consistently advocated for a tougher line on Iran, as have many of his advisers. As his second term approaches, it is natural for Iran to seek refuge with powers such as Russia and China, Mahmoudian believes.

Moscow will also try to make its own impression on the White House.

“Russia wants to send a signal to the White House: we can make things even worse for you,” says Mahmoudian. “(The agreement signals) ‘we understand that you are trying to take a tougher stance against Iran, but it is going to be very difficult without our support.’

Yet even though closer ties between Iran and Russia currently help both countries on the world stage, this agreement could also be easily broken as world events evolve.

If Moscow begins peace negotiations with Ukraine, it could then distance itself from Tehran in order to gain favor with Washington.

“Russia’s main foreign policy issue is Ukraine. They want to make a favorable deal. And for that, they need to make a deal with the Americans, who are Ukraine’s main supporters. Russia is not going to , in my opinion, risk or jeopardize such an agreement on Iran,” says Mahmoudian.

Ultimately, it is these external considerations that undermine the long-term effectiveness of the Russia-Iran deal.

“A deal can be game-changing or influential, but not if it is at the mercy of another third party,” says Mahmoudian.

“The fate of this agreement and its survival are at the mercy of the White House and the new administration.”

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