What is Trump’s agenda and is it popular? Here is the data.

Standing in the Capitol Rotunda on Monday, President Donald Trump captured the mood among Republicans – and the broader American right – by promising a long list of crackdowns and policy reversals.

“My recent election is a mandate to completely and utterly reverse a horrible betrayal,” Trump said. “As our victory showed, the entire nation is quickly uniting behind our agenda, with a dramatic increase in support from virtually every element of our society. »

As he takes office, it may seem as if Trump’s movement has the upper hand culturally and politically. Republicans won the popular vote in both the presidential and congressional elections. Trump’s popularity has never been greater. Broligarchs, celebrities and big companies line up behind him.

But another way to look at it is that Trump’s popularity is probably at its peak — and modern presidents tend to start their terms with broad support before public opinion becomes disappointed. After all, he barely won the election. Republicans only control Congress by tiny majorities. And most of his high-profile policy proposals aren’t as popular as he claims.

Most of the American public does not outright reject everything Trump proposes (at least not yet). On at least three different issues, Trump’s position is very popular. But there is a difference between what the public supports and the mandate Trump claims.

Where Americans support Trump

Earlier this month, the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, Marist College, and public opinion and market research firm Ipsos (in partnership with The New York Times) conducted a poll to gauge Americans’ feelings about a series of actions proposed by Trump. or positions.

The results are clear, even if they are not very helpful in giving Trump a mandate: Americans are divided about evenly on most issues. But they support Trump’s party in at least three areas: pursuing an isolationist foreign policy, being less accommodating toward transgender people, and pursuing a restrictive immigration policy.

For example: Six in ten Americans think “we should pay less attention to problems abroad and focus on problems here at home,” according to an Ipsos poll. And a majority think the federal government spends too much money on aid to Israel (53%) and Ukraine (51%).

Opinions on the two countries are the opposite of those at the start of 2024, when the Ipsos poll found that slight majorities supported continued military aid to both countries.

On gender identity and trans rights, majorities also side with Trump. The highly politicized issue of transgender female athletes competing in women’s sports, for example, is not necessarily a major concern for many Americans, but about 80 percent of respondents in the Ipsos poll believe it should not be allowed.

And about seven in 10 Americans say doctors should not be allowed to prescribe puberty-blocking drugs or hormone treatment to anyone under 18, including almost all Republican respondents and most Democrats.

Opinions on immigration policy vary

Public polling over the past two years paints a much more confusing picture of Trump’s plans on immigration and border control.

They demonstrate a general sense of antipathy toward the status quo: Americans are angry about the influx of legal and illegal immigrants during the Biden presidency, fearful of the security situation at the southern border and are ready to turn away from a welcoming policy. approach to migration.

But when asked more specific questions, Americans become more critical. The AP-NORC poll and the Ipsos poll both show that an overwhelming majority of respondents support some form of legal immigration, meaning the public believes there is value in welcoming foreigners. About 30 percent of respondents, mostly Republicans, think legal immigration to the United States should be reduced “a lot” or “a little,” while 24 percent think the government should increase legal immigration. The rift reflects some of the tensions within the Trump alliance, as some members of the pro-business wing, like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, discussed with Trump’s anti-immigration acolytes in late December.

When it comes to illegal immigration, opinions are also nuanced. According to the Ipsos poll, some 55% of Americans, including a third of Democrats, support “deporting all immigrants who are here illegally.” A majority – 43 percent – ​​in the AP-NORC poll says the same thing. This support increases significantly when specifically suggesting the expulsion of those with criminal records or those who crossed the southern border during the post-pandemic surge: 87% support the former, while 63% support the latter in the Ipsos poll.

And yet, that support shifts when asking about exceptions: 63% of Americans strongly or somewhat support protecting DACA recipients — those immigrants who were children when they entered the United States illegally.

This complexity is not reflected in the way Trump and his supporters talk about mass deportations and raids. They talk, and likely will act, as if there is overwhelming support for deporting all undocumented immigrants. But what has been fairly consistent in recent years is that Americans have warmed to the idea of ​​mass deportations. theoretically. However, actually seeing them play will likely change that opinion.

What the public doesn’t seem to want

And then there are things that don’t really excite the American public: tariffs, the pursuit of political opponents, the January 6, 2021 pardon, the rioters, and the attempt to get rid of birthright citizenship.

The Ipsos poll reflects something relevant to the executive order signed by Trump that seeks to overturn the 14th Amendment guarantee of citizenship rights — that everyone born on U.S. soil is American — for the children of undocumented immigrants. Nearly 55 percent of the country’s residents reject this proposal.

There is also a mandate against Trump’s political retaliation plans: Nearly three-quarters of Americans reject the idea that Trump should use the government to investigate his political opponents, while another AP-NORC poll shows just two in 10 Americans support his proposed pardon for people who participated in the attack on the Capitol on January 6. Six out of ten people are opposed to these pardons.

Finally, Americans are not enthusiastic about the broad or targeted tariffs that Trump has said he wants to implement. The AP-NORC poll shows that nearly half of U.S. adults are “somewhat” or “strongly” opposed to new tariffs on all foreign products. A slight majority also opposes a reduction in tariffs that specifically targets China and Mexico, according to the Ipsos survey.

It may seem semantic to claim that Trump’s support numbers aren’t that simple. But the nuance here is important: the coming months will likely be filled with attempts by the new administration to push for big changes under the guise of “having a mandate.” A closer look, however, reveals which policy changes the public might actually support – and which they might not.