What is causing England’s winter flu crisis? | Flu

Is the flu causing more problems than usual this year?

Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) suggests flu levels and hospitalizations are higher than this time last year.

According to the most recent figures, the overall weekly rate of hospitalization for influenza increased to 14.09 per 100,000 population in the week ending December 29, 2024, up from 10.69 per 100,000 the week before and 8.72 per 100,000 the previous week.

“I don’t think the fact that the flu vaccine was offered later this year, compared to last year, for some groups has helped,” said Dr. Simon Williams, a behavioral scientist and health researcher. public health at Swansea University. “However, it is not unprecedented to have an increase in flu cases in December: we saw something similar in 2022.”

The 2022-23 season was the first time the flu became widespread since the start of the Covid pandemic and was linked to 14,500 additional deaths – the highest figure since the 2017-18 season.

Figures from NHS England revealed that there were an average of 4,469 flu patients hospitalized each day in England in the last week of December 2024. Although this will be lower than the same figure in 2022, when this figure reached 5 441, there is still no sign that they are past their peak.

Professor Julian Redhead, NHS national clinical director for urgent and emergency care, said: “These latest figures show that flu pressure was far from easing heading into the new year, climbing to more than 5,000 cases per day in hospital from January 1. end of last week and increasing at a very worrying rate.

What else is behind the pressures from the NHS?

The flu is just one part of what some have dubbed the “quad-demic” affecting hospitals. As Redhead noted, besides the flu, Covid pressures are constant, while hospital cases of RSV and norovirus are higher than last year.

There are also the constant and chronic pressures that the NHS faces, including a lack of available beds.

Sir Andrew Pollard, Professor of Pediatric Infection and Immunity at the University of Oxford, said: “The latest data suggests that the spread of influenza in the 2024-25 season is likely to be at its peak in the ‘current time, which means maximum flu pressure on the NHS is now.

Who is most affected by the flu?

The flu can be especially serious for the elderly, the very young, and people with underlying health conditions.

Indeed, although UKHSA data suggests that people aged 5 to 14 are most likely to test positive for flu, it is older people who are mainly treated in hospital with the virus .

According to UKHSA figures, in the most recent week flu hospitalization rates were highest among people aged 85 and over, at 88.38 per 100,000 in the catchment population. confidence, with a rate of 26.1 per 100,000 for people aged under four. .

What is the situation regarding flu vaccination?

It is possible that the lack of protection against the flu is contributing to the situation in hospitals.

According to the latest UKHSA figures for England, the flu vaccination rate among GP patients up to December 15, 2024 was 37.6% among those under 65 in a clinical risk group, from 33.1% among pregnant women, 40.3% among children aged two. and 41.6% among children aged three. In contrast, this figure was 73.0% among adults over 65 years old.

It is difficult to compare the vaccination rate from year to year because the start date of this winter’s vaccination program for most adults was moved to early October to address the problem of decrease in protection over time. However, the UKHSA said that compared to the equivalent week last season, “the vaccination rate is lower for those aged two, slightly lower for those aged three and higher for pregnant women.” .

Despite this, the figures suggest that large numbers of people considered at increased risk of flu are still unprotected.

“There are 11 million people over the age of 65, which leaves 2.75 million people unvaccinated,” Pollard said. “There is a strong age effect in hospitalization and therefore older people in this population are more likely to be hospitalized.”

Another potential factor is the effectiveness of the flu vaccine: it can vary from year to year depending on the suitability of the vaccine to the strain in circulation.

Pollard said: “We don’t yet know the effectiveness of the vaccine for this season because it takes time to collect the information and analyze the data, so that answer will come in several weeks. Vaccination remains the cornerstone of protecting the individual and the NHS.

What else can people do to protect themselves?

Williams said it’s important to reduce close contact with others when symptoms appear, adding other helpful actions include wearing a mask in hospitals and investing in an air purifier (filter Hepa), noting that the latter potentially helps reduce the risk of spreading airborne viruses indoors.

Professor Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at the UKHSA, also stressed the importance of limiting contact with others, particularly vulnerable people, if symptoms develop. “If you have symptoms and need to leave the house, our advice is always to wear a face covering. Washing your hands regularly and using and disposing of tissues in trash can reduce the spread of respiratory illnesses,” she said.