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Air transport and turbulence have always gone hand in hand, with many flights, particularly long-haul, experiencing periods of turbulence. The serious episode that occurred on board a Singapore Airlines plane, in which a passenger died, raises concerns about the risk of turbulence.
Experts say it is extremely unlikely that most thefts will result in injury or damage, but there have been many recent incidents in which this has happened.
Understanding the causes of turbulence can help air crews and passengers mitigate its impact.
“Fatalities from turbulence on commercial flights are fortunately very rare, but unfortunately they increased by one today,” said Paul Williams, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, in a press release published today.
Here’s how air turbulence can create problems for air travelers.
What is turbulence and what are its causes?
There are four main levels of turbulence: mild, moderate, severe and extreme.
In mild to moderate turbulence, passengers may feel tension against their seat belts and unsecured objects in the cabin may move.
However, in more severe cases, turbulence can throw passengers into the cabin, causing serious injury or even death.
“Turbulence on flights can be caused by storms, mountains and strong air currents called jet streams,” adds Williams.
“In the latter case, we are talking about clear-air turbulence, and it can be difficult to avoid because it does not appear on the cockpit weather radar.”
“Clear air turbulence is air movement created by atmospheric pressure, jet streams, air around mountains, cold or warm weather fronts or thunderstorms,” according to the Federal’s website Aviation Administration.
Pilots are sometimes warned in advance of reports of turbulence by the Federal Aviation Administration, airline weather teams or even other pilots flying ahead of them. However, turbulence can also occur without warning.
According to the FAA, 30 passengers and 116 crew members were seriously injured due to turbulence between 2009 and 2021.
With the number of air passengers currently estimated at around four billion per year, such incidents obviously remain rare.
The FAA cites turbulence as the leading cause of injuries to flight attendants and passengers in nonfatal accidents on commercial airlines.
Because airlines are not required to report more minor injuries, the total number of injuries is unclear.
Fatalities, like the one at Singapore Airlines, are also extremely rare. In December 1997, a United Airlines flight from Tokyo to Honolulu also experienced turbulence that left one person dead.
“Turbulence makes flying bumpy and can sometimes be dangerous,” says Mark Prosser, a meteorological researcher at the University of Reading.
“Airlines will need to start thinking about how they are going to deal with increased turbulence, because it costs the industry between $150 million and $500 million a year in the United States alone.
“Each additional minute spent traveling in turbulence increases wear and tear on the aircraft, as well as the risk of injury to passengers and flight attendants.”
A University of Reading study found that severe turbulence has increased by 55% over the past four decades due to the impact of climate change.
The report, published in June 2023, reveals that on average over the North Atlantic, which is one of the world’s busiest air routes, the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020.
In 2022, Williams, co-author of the study, told CNN he believes severe turbulence “could double or triple in the coming decades.”
He later attributed this to “clear air turbulence”, a type of turbulence that strikes suddenly and is very difficult to avoid.
The flight crew received no warning in about 28% of turbulence-related accidents between 2009 and 2018, according to figures from the National Transportation Safety Board.
Williams’ analysis predicted that clear-air turbulence would increase significantly around the world in the coming decades.
“Typically on a transatlantic flight you can expect 10 minutes of turbulence,” he added.
“I think in a few decades it could go to 20 minutes or half an hour. The seat belt signal will be much brighter, unfortunately for passengers.”
The short answer to this question is “Yes”. A 2021 NTSB report indicated that the majority of passengers injured in “turbulence-related” crashes were not wearing their seat belts at the time.
Since it is sometimes impossible to predict when a plane will encounter turbulence in clear air, the only way to be 100% safe is to stay strapped in the entire journey.
In extreme turbulence, “when the aircraft is thrown violently and is impossible to control,” structural damage can be caused to an aircraft, according to the U.S. National Weather Service.
Recent incidents, including the one affecting the Singapore Airlines flight, have also resulted in significant damage to the aircraft’s cabin.
Turbulence can occur almost anywhere and at any height, but certain areas are known to be more sensitive.
The Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore appears to have encountered severe turbulence over Myanmar after crossing the Andaman Sea in Southeast Asia.
After an analysis of around 150,000 different flight routes, turbulence forecasting website Turbli found that the route between Santiago, Chile, and Viru Viru International Airport in Bolivia was the bumpiest, while the he route between Almaty, Kazakhstan, and the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek. , came second on the list released last year.
Nashville, Tennessee, to Raleigh/Durham, North Carolina was ranked as the North American route with the highest average turbulence.
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