What I’m hearing as Guardians approach MLB draft – Terry Pluto

CLEVELAND, Ohio – What I’m hearing about the 2024 college draft:

1. I start by saying “I don’t know…” as in “I don’t know what the Guardians are going to do with the first pick.” Cleveland has done a great job of keeping it a secret, there is a lot of speculation about their intentions with the first pick in the draft.

2. Cleveland has never had the first pick… ever. This century, they’ve only had four picks in the top 10. The highest was No. 5. Those were Clint Frazier (2013) and Drew Pomeranz (2010). Frazier was used in a deal with the Yankees to bring Andrew Miller to Cleveland in 2016. Pomeranz was in a deal with Colorado to add Ubaldo Jimenez to the rotation in 2011.

3. The other top-10 picks were Francisco Lindor (No. 8 in 2011) and Jeremy Sowers (No. 6 in 2004). Trying to find clues is difficult. Guardians president Chris Antonetti was involved in the 2013 (Frazier) and 2011 (Lindor) drafts.

4. What about this year? Some predict the Guardians will take Travis Bazzana, a second baseman from Oregon State. That’s the baseball factory that produced Cleveland’s Steven Kwan and many other MLB players. If Bazzana is the first pick, he’ll be the first second baseman to be selected first overall in the draft. But some scouts predict he’ll be moved to the outfield. That could be in the cards if he goes to Cleveland.

5. Bazzana hit .407 (1.479 OPS) with a school record 28 HRs. He grew up in Australia. He is absolutely obsessed with excellence and loves analytics and video. The guy studies everything. I have heard that you have to be careful when looking at some of the stats from this college season. Some scouts think the balls were inflated because so many players are setting home run records.

6. The reason I’m intrigued by Bazzana is his performance in the Cape Cod Summer League. He hit .375 (1.037 OPS) and was voted league MVP. That league has many of the best college players. I heard one scout say he “has the best bat-to-ball skills I’ve ever seen.” He regularly drew twice as many walks as strikeouts. I still think he’s Cleveland’s man, but I have no reason to believe that’s true.

7. My favorite player since I heard Cleveland had the first pick is Charlie Condon from Georgia. I dream the Guardians will put a hard hitting right-handed hitter in the middle of the lineup. He can play outfield, first base and third base.

8. Playing in the nation’s top college baseball conference, Condon hit .433 (1.009 OPS) with 37 HR and 78 RBI in 60 games. In 304 plate appearances, he struck out just 41 batters and allowed 57 walks. He stands 6-foot-6 and weighs 216 pounds. Players that size often strike out. He may have more upside than Bazzana. Condon was a walk-on at Georgia and this was only his second full season.

9. A warning sign? In the same Cape Cod League where Bazzana impressed, Condon hit .261 (.648 OPS). He struck out 12 times in 46 at-bats with one home run. He struck out just four times, walked three, and didn’t show much power. Was it because of the wood bats or just a small sample size? He could have improved since the summer of 2023, too.

10. Some scouts believe JJ Wetherholt could be the Guardians’ “surprise pick.” An infielder at West Virginia, he’s considered a close matchup to Bazzana, a player with “excellent batting and ball skills.” He hit .331 (1.068 OPS) with eight HRs in 164 plate appearances. He battled hamstring issues for much of the season.

11. Wetherholt is a 5-foot-10, 190-pound left-handed hitter. Healthy in 2023, he had a monster season with a .449 batting average (1.304 OPS) and 16 HRs in 268 plate appearances. He also hit .321 (.978 OPS) in the Cape Cod League, a mark scouts highly value.

12. Some fans love Jac Caglianone, who is supposed to be the Shohei Ohtani of this draft. That’s because Caglianone hits with power and throws hard. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound left-hander went 5-2 with a 4.76 ERA. In 73 innings, he struck out 83 batters but walked 50. As far as pitching goes, he’s more of a mid-round project than a top prospect. But if a team drafts him, they can always try him as a pitcher in case he doesn’t hit.

13. While Condon impressed with 38 HRs in the SEC, Caglianone was right behind him with 35 HRs. He had more home runs (35) than strikeouts (24). He hit .419 (1.415 OPS). He is primarily a first baseman. Some scouts I have heard from think he may be strikeout-prone as a pro. He has cut down his strikeouts significantly in 2024.

14. The overwhelming numbers accumulated by these top-rated picks are mind-boggling. It’s a safe bet that one of them will be Spencer Torkelson, Detroit’s first overall pick in the 2020 draft. Torkelson broke Barry Bonds’ home run record as a freshman at Arizona State. He seemed like a sure thing at the top of the draft. He’s stuck in Class AAA Toledo after struggling in several big-league trials.

15. Bryce Harper, Washington’s first overall pick in the 2010 draft, is a good example. He was a high school player and is one of the best power hitters in the major leagues. There are a lot of misses with the first pick. I won’t list them, but it’s scary for any team hoping to make a franchise-changing pick. Pitchers like Hagen Smith (Arkansas) and Chase Burns (Wake Forest) are projected as top-10 picks. I don’t see Cleveland taking a pitcher.